SRECTrade SREC Markets Report: November 2012

The following post outlines the megawatts of solar capacity certified to create SRECs in the Solar REC markets SRECTrade currently serves. All PJM data is based on the information available in PJM GATS as of the date noted. All MA data is based on the information provided by the DOER as of the date noted. This analysis does not include projects that are not yet registered and certified with the entities noted herein.

A more detailed analysis of supply, demand and price trends in the SREC markets can be found in the SREC Market Monitor, a joint-venture between SRECTrade and Greentech Media’s GTM Research.

A PDF copy of this table can be found here.

***NJ Update*** NJ Clean Energy Program Installed Capacity as of 12/11/12: Preliminary estimates through November 2012 reached approximately 950 MW of installed solar capacity; a 31 MW increase over the prior month. The number in the table above represents all capacity registered in GATS as of the date noted. The remaining capacity will be registered and receive SREC credit from the date of project interconnection.

Overview of PJM Eligible Systems

As of December 6, 2012 there were 29,870 solar PV and 565 solar thermal systems registered and eligible to create SRECs in the PJM Generation Attribute Tracking System (GATS). Of these, 192 (0.63%) have a nameplate capacity of 1 megawatt or greater. Twenty of these projects have a nameplate capacity of 5 MW or greater, up from 19 projects in the last analysis. New Jersey continues to host most of the larger scale facilities, claiming home to 70% of the projects, 14 of 20 facilities, that are equal to or greater than 5 MW. The three largest projects continue to be the 25.1 MW PSE&G utility pole mount project located in NJ, the 16.1 MW Mount St. Mary’s project in MD, and the 12.5 MW ACE Oak Fairton project located in NJ.

Massachusetts DOER Qualified Projects

As of December 12, 2012, there were 4,052 MA DOER qualified solar projects; 4,035 operational and 17 not operational. Total qualified capacity is 157.7 MW, 140.5 of which is operational and 17.3 MW not operational. Electricity suppliers providing power to the state need to acquire approximately 73,400 SRECs in 2012. According to NEPOOL GIS, 44,956 Q1 and Q2 2012 SRECs have been issued for the year to date. Additionally, 59,890 MWhs were reported to the MassCEC production tracking system for the 5 months covering July-November 2012.

How to Interpret This Table

The tables above demonstrate the capacity breakout by state. Note, that for all PJM GATS registered projects, each state includes all projects certified to sell into that state. State RPS programs that allow for systems sited in other states to participate have been broken up by systems sited in-state and out-of-state. Additional detail has been provided to demonstrate the total capacity of systems only certified for one specific state market versus being certified for multiple state markets. For example, PA includes projects only certified to sell into the PA SREC market, broken out by in-state and out-of-state systems, as well as projects that are also certified to sell into PA and Other State markets broken out by in state and out of state systems (i.e. OH, DC, MD, DE, NJ). PA Out-of-State includes systems sited in states with their own state SREC market (i.e. DE) as well as systems sited in states that have no SREC market (i.e. VA). Also, it is important to note that the Current Capacity represents the total megawatts eligible to produce and sell SRECs as of the noted date, while the Estimated Required Capacity – Current and Next Reporting Year represents the estimated number of MW that need to be online on average throughout the reporting period to meet the RPS requirement within each state with only that particular compliance period vintage. For example, New Jersey needed approximately 496.7 MW online for the entire 2013 reporting year to meet the RPS requirement with 2013 vintage SRECs only. SRECs still available from prior eligible periods can also impact the Solar RPS requirements. Additionally, the data presented above does not include projects that are in the pipeline or currently going through the registration process in each state program. This data represents specifically the projects that have been approved for the corresponding state SREC markets as of the dates noted.

Note: SREC requirements for markets without fixed SREC targets have been forecast based on EIA Report “Retail Sales of Electricity by State by Provider” updated 10/1/12. Projected SRECs required utilizes the most recent EIA electricity data applying an average 1.5% growth rate per forecast year. The state’s RPS Solar requirement is then multiplied by forecast total electricity sales to arrive at projected SRECs required. Projected capacity required is based on a factor of 1,200 MWh in PJM states and 1,130 MWh in MA, generated per MW of installed capacity per year.