The following post is a monthly update outlining the megawatts of solar capacity certified to create SRECs in the PJM GATS solar REC markets that SRECTrade serves. All data is based on the information available in PJM GATS as of April 18, 2018.

Notes: Due to the convergence of SREC prices across the DE, MD, OH, and PA SREC markets, methodology for calculating PJM GATS Registered MW figures was updated to represent cross-registration between similarly-priced markets. Please see the additional notes below for more information.

Following the passage of Act No. 40 (see HB118) in Pennsylvania last October, the PA Public Utilities Commission (PUC) is completing its rule-making proceeding on whether and how to grandfather certain out-of-state facilities already certified under the Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard (AEPS). On April 19, 2018, the PUC issued its Final Implementation Order on Act No. 40 of 2017. The Order clarified that PA-certified but out-of-state facilities will only retain their PA certification if they are 1) already certified as AEPS Tier I Solar Photovoltaic and 2) entered into an SREC contract with a PA electric distribution company (EDC) or electric generation supplier (EGS) serving PA customers. Solar facilities that meet the two Section 2804(2)(ii) criteria listed above are limited to maintaining Tier I solar qualification only for the amount of SRECs contractually committed to the EDCs or EGSs in their contracts. In addition, the Order clarified that SRECs generated by certified but out-of-state facilities prior to October 30, 2017 will retain their Tier I solar qualification for their standard banking lifetime (current reporting year and following two).

At this time, it remains unclear 1) whether PA-certified but out-of-state facilities will retain their (non-solar) Tier I certification and 2) whether SRECs generated by certified but out-of-state facilities after October 30, 2017 will also retain their Tier I solar qualification. The PA in-state capacity figure displayed in the chart below represents the final capacity that will be PA SREC eligible. The capacity that is currently PA SREC eligible is between the total PA capacity and in-state PA capacity figures below, due to the facilities that meet the two Section 2804(2)(ii) criteria.

The chart above compares the megawatts (MWs) registered in PJM GATS as of the date noted (the blue bar) to the estimated RPS solar MWs needed to be operational through the duration of the current reporting year (the green bar) to meet each market’s RPS targets. The Estimated RPS MW figure can be interpreted as the amount of active capacity that would need to be online throughout the year in order to produce the obligatory megawatt hours of electricity mandated by each state’s RPS schedule.

This chart is not meant to be a final representation of SREC supply for a given compliance period, but is instead a visualization of the relationship between installed capacity relative to each state’s estimated RPS requirements converted from a MWh to MW basis. Note that the Registered MW figures do not consider eligible SRECs carried over from previous reporting years and are only used as one aspect of current market supply drawn from the current MWs registered in PJM GATS. The installed capacity operational over the indicated time period will produce SRECs which, in addition to any eligible unsold SRECs from previous periods, will make up the final supply present in the market. For estimates on required number of SRECs per reporting year across the SREC markets SRECTrade covers, please visit our state market summary pages.

As of March 31, 2018, New Jersey had installed a cumulative total of 2,445.4MW of nameplate capacity. Their Solar Installation Report and Solar Pipeline Report can be found on the New Jersey Office of Clean Energy website here.

Additionally, please note the following in the figures presented above:

OH2018: Represents all OH eligible solar facilities and includes some facilities that are cross-registered in PA. If any facilities were eligible in higher priced markets, such as DC, the capacity was excluded from OH eligibility as it could be sold at a higher price in DC.

DE2017: Represents all solar facilities eligible for the DE solar RPS requirement and includes some facilities that are cross-registered in PA.

DC2018: Includes all facilities eligible for the DC SREC market. If a facility was eligible in another market, it was not included there given the current pricing for DC SRECs.

PA2018: Represents all solar facilities eligible for the PA SREC market. Some facilities are cross-registered in DE, MD, and OH as well. If a facility was eligible in any higher priced markets (i.e. NJ sited facilities that cross-registered in PA) they were not included in the total MW balance displayed above. Please note the additional figures for PA In-State facilities.

MD2018: Includes all MD eligible solar capacity registered in PJM GATS and includes some facilities that are cross-registered in PA. If facilities were cross-registered in Washington D.C., the capacity was not allocated to Maryland’s eligible MW total.

NJ2018: The balance noted above represents the March 31, 2018 Solar Installation Report reported by Applied Energy Group.

PJM GATS Registered Solar Facilities Summary

There are 174,323 facilities across 6,064.1MW registered in PJM GATS as of April 18, 2018.

621 facilities are 1MW or larger in capacity, representing 3,304.8MW or 54.5% of the qualified capacity. There are 145 facilities that are 5MW or larger, representing 1,981.7MW or 32.7% of all qualified capacity.

Note: SREC requirements for markets without fixed SREC targets have been forecast based on the EIA Report “Retail Sales of Electricity by State by Provider”. Projected SRECs required utilizes the most recent EIA electricity data applying an average 1.0% growth rate per forecast year. The state’s RPS Solar requirement is then multiplied by forecast total electricity sales to arrive at projected SRECs required. Projected capacity required is based on a factor of 1,200MWh, in PJM GATS states, generated per MW of installed capacity per year.

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