The following post is a monthly update outlining:
- The megawatts of solar capacity certified to create SRECs in the PJM GATS SREC markets that SRECTrade serves
- The relationship between supply and demand of SRECs in the PJM GATS SREC markets that SRECTrade serves
Solar capacity data is based on the information available in PJM GATS as of June 13, 2018. Certificate data is based on the information available in PJM GATS as of June 29, 2018 (incorporates May SREC issuance data).
Note: In the past, we have used a 1% annual load growth rate to estimate load in current and future compliance years. Taking into account recent load trends, we have come to the conclusion that a flat load growth is more appropriate for all PJM states. As such, load and compliance numbers may be lower than previously estimated to more accurately reflect actual compliance obligations.
PJM GATS Registered Solar Facilities Summary
There are 175,434 facilities across 4,467.3 MW registered in PJM GATS as of June 13, 2018.
506 facilities are 1 MW or larger in capacity, representing 1,966.2 MW or 44.0% of the qualified capacity. There are 104 facilities that are 5 MW or larger, representing 1,194.9 MW or 26.7% of all qualified capacity.
Note: SREC requirements for markets without fixed SREC targets have been forecast based on the EIA Report “Monthly Electric Power Industry Report”. Projected SRECs required utilizes the most recent EIA electricity data with a flat growth rate forecast. The state RPS’s solar carve-out is then multiplied by forecast total electricity sales to arrive at projected SRECs required. Projected capacity required is based on a factor of 1,200 MWh generated per MW of installed capacity per year.
Capacity Update
The chart above compares the megawatts (MWs) registered in PJM GATS as of the date noted (the light and dark blue bars) to the estimated RPS solar MWs needed to be operational through the duration of the current reporting year (the gray bar) to meet each market’s RPS targets. The Estimated RPS MW figure can be interpreted as the amount of capacity that would need to be online throughout the year in order to produce the obligatory megawatt hours of electricity mandated by each state’s RPS schedule. For Delaware, the gray bar represents the estimated EY2017 (Jun ’17 – May ’18) compliance obligation. For Ohio, Washington D.C., and Maryland, the gray bar represents estimated CY2018 (Jan ’18 – Dec’18) compliance obligations. For Pennsylvania and New Jersey, the gray bar represents estimated EY2018 (Jun ’17 – May ’18) compliance obligations.
OH2018: Represents all OH eligible solar facilities. If any facilities were eligible in higher priced markets, such as DC, the capacity was excluded from OH eligibility as it could be sold at a higher price in DC. The drop of OH capacity from last month represents the capacity that was “deactivated” due to non-reporting for 2+ years.
DE2018: Represents all solar facilities eligible for the DE solar RPS requirement. The drop of DE capacity from last month highlights the capacity that was “deactivated” due to non-reporting for 2+ years.
DC2018: Represents all facilities eligible for the DC SREC market. If a facility was eligible in another market, it was not included there given the current pricing for DC SRECs.
PA2019: Represents all solar facilities eligible for the PA SREC market. Please note that ALL out of state facilities previously certified in PA were stripped of their certification in May. You can read more about this policy change here. ALL PA-TIER I ELIGIBLE FACILITIES THAT ARE NOT ELIGIBLE FOR ANY OTHER SREC MARKET ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS ANALYSIS. The drop in PA capacity from last month represents the capacity that was “deactivated” due to non-reporting for 2+ years.
MD2018: Represents all MD eligible solar capacity registered in PJM GATS, except facilities that are cross-registered in Washington D.C.
NJ2019: Represents all NJ eligible solar capacity registered in PJM GATS.
This chart is not meant to be a final representation of SREC supply for a given compliance period, but instead a visualization of the relationship between installed capacity relative to each state’s estimated RPS requirements converted from a MWh to MW basis. Note that the registered MW figures do not consider eligible SRECs carried over from previous reporting years and are only used as one aspect of current market supply drawn from the current MWs registered in PJM GATS. The installed capacity operating over the indicated time period will produce SRECs which, in addition to any eligible unsold SRECs from previous periods, will make up the final supply present in the market.
SREC Supply and Demand
The following charts depict SREC supply and demand dynamics, including banked SRECs available for compliance.
Assumptions:
- All assumptions for the capacity analysis above apply to the analysis below as well. In addition:
- The compliance obligation is based on flat load growth from 2017 electricity load data for each respective state. (Source: EIA)
- Build rates in each state are equal to that state’s Last Six Month (LSM) average monthly build rate.
- The bulk of EY2017 supply numbers for Delaware and EY2018 numbers for New Jersey and Pennsylvania were issued on June 29, 2018. While some 2018 SRECs may have not yet been issued, this analysis assumes that all 2018 SRECs have been issued as of June 29, 2018.
- The CY2018 supply numbers for Maryland, Ohio, and Washington D.C. add the actual issued credits through June 29, 2018 to the projected SRECs generated through the end of CY2018.
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