The Department of Energy Resources (DOER) published an updated list of projects with a Statement of Qualification (SQA) on August 25, 2016. Since the last update in July not much has changed in the SREC-II landscape. Expected oversupply still remains the reality reflected in pricing for 2016. Similarly, monthly build-rates are more or less unchanged. The total installed capacity increased 65MW since the last update, bringing us to 573.54 MW. You can find our in-depth analysis here. Below, please find some highlights.
Based on the latest data, there are currently 573.54 MW of operational assets, with an additional 956.87 MW that is qualified, but not operational:
Finally, based on current build rates, we continue to see a gross oversupply for the MA2016 SREC-II market:
Thus far, the market has generated 82,758 MA2016 SREC-IIs and based on current build-rates and installed capacity, we estimate an additional 473,084 SRECs coming later in the year. Adding in the re-minted volumes of 67,046, we see a potential pool of supply upwards of 622,888. Compare that supply figure to the demand side of approximately 327,471 and we conclude the market is oversupplied by 90%. In other words, nearly half of all MA2016 SRECs may find their way to the Solar Credit Clearinghouse Auction next year.
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