Archive for the ‘SREC Markets’ Category

PJM GATS Solar – Registered Capacity Update as of June 2018

Posted July 3rd, 2018 by SRECTrade.

The following post is a monthly update outlining:

The megawatts of solar capacity certified to create SRECs in the PJM GATS SREC markets that SRECTrade serves
The relationship between supply and demand of SRECs in the PJM GATS SREC markets that SRECTrade serves

Solar capacity data is based on the information available in PJM GATS as of June 13, 2018. Certificate data is based on the information available in PJM GATS as of June 29, 2018 (incorporates May SREC issuance data).

Note: In the past, we have used a 1% annual load growth rate to estimate load in current and future compliance years. Taking into account recent load trends, we have come to the conclusion that a flat load growth is more appropriate for all PJM states. As such, load and compliance numbers may be lower than previously estimated to more accurately reflect actual compliance obligations.

PJM GATS Registered Solar Facilities Summary

There are 175,434 facilities across 4,467.3 MW registered in PJM GATS as of June 13, 2018.

506 facilities are 1 MW or larger in capacity, representing 1,966.2 MW or 44.0% of the qualified capacity. There are 104 facilities that are 5 MW or larger, representing 1,194.9 MW or 26.7% of all qualified capacity.

Note: SREC requirements for markets without fixed SREC targets have been forecast based on the EIA Report “Monthly Electric Power Industry Report”. Projected SRECs required utilizes the most recent EIA electricity data with a flat growth rate forecast. The state RPS’s solar carve-out is then multiplied by forecast total electricity sales to arrive at projected SRECs required. Projected capacity required is based on a factor of 1,200 MWh generated per MW of installed capacity per year.

Capacity Update

The chart above compares the megawatts (MWs) registered in PJM GATS as of the date noted (the light and dark blue bars) to the estimated RPS solar MWs needed to be operational through the duration of the current reporting year (the gray bar) to meet each market’s RPS targets. The Estimated RPS MW figure can be interpreted as the amount of capacity that would need to be online throughout the year in order to produce the obligatory megawatt hours of electricity mandated by each state’s RPS schedule. For Delaware, the gray bar represents the estimated EY2017 (Jun ’17 – May ’18) compliance obligation. For Ohio, Washington D.C., and Maryland, the gray bar represents estimated CY2018 (Jan ’18 – Dec’18) compliance obligations. For Pennsylvania and New Jersey, the gray bar represents estimated EY2018 (Jun ’17 – May ’18) compliance obligations.

OH2018: Represents all OH eligible solar facilities. If any facilities were eligible in higher priced markets, such as DC, the capacity was excluded from OH eligibility as it could be sold at a higher price in DC. The drop of OH capacity from last month represents the capacity that was “deactivated” due to non-reporting for 2+ years.

DE2018: Represents all solar facilities eligible for the DE solar RPS requirement. The drop of DE capacity from last month highlights the capacity that was “deactivated” due to non-reporting for 2+ years.

DC2018: Represents all facilities eligible for the DC SREC market. If a facility was eligible in another market, it was not included there given the current pricing for DC SRECs.

PA2019: Represents all solar facilities eligible for the PA SREC market. Please note that ALL out of state facilities previously certified in PA were stripped of their certification in May. You can read more about this policy change here. ALL PA-TIER I ELIGIBLE FACILITIES THAT ARE NOT ELIGIBLE FOR ANY OTHER SREC MARKET ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THIS ANALYSIS. The drop in PA capacity from last month represents the capacity that was “deactivated” due to non-reporting for 2+ years.

MD2018: Represents all MD eligible solar capacity registered in PJM GATS, except facilities that are cross-registered in Washington D.C.

NJ2019: Represents all NJ eligible solar capacity registered in PJM GATS.

This chart is not meant to be a final representation of SREC supply for a given compliance period, but instead a visualization of the relationship between installed capacity relative to each state’s estimated RPS requirements converted from a MWh to MW basis. Note that the registered MW figures do not consider eligible SRECs carried over from previous reporting years and are only used as one aspect of current market supply drawn from the current MWs registered in PJM GATS. The installed capacity operating over the indicated time period will produce SRECs which, in addition to any eligible unsold SRECs from previous periods, will make up the final supply present in the market.

SREC Supply and Demand

The following charts depict SREC supply and demand dynamics, including banked SRECs available for compliance.

Assumptions:

All assumptions for the capacity analysis above apply to the analysis below as well. In addition:
The compliance obligation is based on flat load growth from 2017 electricity load data for each respective state. (Source: EIA)
Build rates in each state are equal to that state’s Last Six Month (LSM) average monthly build rate.
The bulk of EY2017 supply numbers for Delaware and EY2018 numbers for New Jersey and Pennsylvania were issued on June 29, 2018. While some 2018 SRECs may have not yet been issued, this analysis assumes that all 2018 SRECs have been issued as of June 29, 2018.
The CY2018 supply numbers for Maryland, Ohio, and Washington D.C. add the actual issued credits through June 29, 2018 to the projected SRECs generated through the end of CY2018.

Disclaimer. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) are for informational purposes only. The Materials are not intended as investment, tax, legal, or financial advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purpose or sale of any financial instrument. SRECTrade, Inc. does not warranty or guarantee the market data or other information included herein, as to its completeness, accuracy, or fitness for a particular purpose, express or implied, and such market data and information are subject to change without notice. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of SRECTrade, Inc. SRECTrade, Inc. may have issued, and may in the future issue, other communications, data, or reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein.

Copyright. This document is protected by copyright laws and contains material proprietary to SRECTrade, Inc. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) may not be reproduced, republished, distributed, transmitted, displayed, broadcasted or otherwise disseminated or exploited in any manner without the express prior written permission of SRECTrade, Inc. The receipt or possession of the Materials does not convey any rights to reproduce, disclose, or distribute its contents, or to manufacture, use, or sell anything that it may describe, in whole or in part. If consent to use the Materials is granted, reference and sourcing must be attributed to the Materials and to SRECTrade, Inc. If you have questions about the use or reproduction of the Materials, please contact SRECTrade, Inc.

Posted in Capacity Summary, SREC Markets | Comments Off on PJM GATS Solar – Registered Capacity Update as of June 2018

Massachusetts SREC-II Application Timeline

Posted June 27th, 2018 by SRECTrade.

While the Solar Massachusetts Renewable Target (SMART) Program Effective Date is still to be announced by the Department of Energy Resources (DOER), the application timelines for SREC-II have been set.

As a reminder, the SMART Program Effective Date will be the deadline for facilities smaller than or equal to 25 kW DC to be interconnected and facilities larger than 25 kW DC to be mechanically complete. This means that documentation must be dated on or before the Effective Date, but applications can be submitted for some time after.

Facilities larger than 25 kW DC will have two weeks after the SMART Program Effective Date to submit their documentation demonstrating mechanical completion. Once granted, mechanically complete extensions are indefinite – facilities should simply submit their Permission to Operate (PTO) documents once they are received to complete their statement of qualification application.

Facilities smaller than or equal to 25 kW DC will have until November 15th to submit an application demonstrating authorization to interconnect. In other words, the PTO must be dated on or before the effective date, but the applications can be submitted to the DOER up through November 15th.

For more information please reference the DOER’s Current Status of the Solar Carve Out II Program page.

Tags: MA, Massachusetts, SMART, SREC II
Posted in Massachusetts, SREC Markets | Comments Off on Massachusetts SREC-II Application Timeline

SRECTrade and USPV Combine as SRECTrade Launches its Portfolio Partnership Program

Posted June 13th, 2018 by SRECTrade.

SRECTrade is excited to announce the completion of the merger of U.S. Photovoltaics’ (USPV) Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) management, aggregation, and transaction services business. USPV is one of the largest SREC aggregators in Washington, D.C. and Maryland. USPV’s decision to combine with SRECTrade demonstrates our leadership and expertise in managing distributed generation renewable energy assets. SRECTrade’s agency management services now cover 415 Megawatts across more than 31,500 projects in the PJM and NEPOOL REC markets. Additionally, SRECTrade-X, the Company’s institutional REC management software, provides services to 1.1 Gigawatts across more than 104,000 projects. SRECTrade-X also provides REC management solutions to electricity suppliers and environmental commodity trading firms.

SRECTrade looks forward to working with other managers and aggregators as we launch our new Portfolio Partnership Program. This new program allows REC managers and aggregators to utilize SRECTrade’s platform and technology to address a variety of environmental commodity management and transaction solutions.

We are pleased to welcome USPV’s clients and partners and look forward to facilitating the management of their REC assets. USPV client and partner accounts have been migrated onto the SRECTrade platform. All clients can login and view their historic REC transactions, renewable energy facilities, and REC sales preferences.

A copy of the full press release can be found here.

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Pennsylvania SREC Market Update

Posted May 29th, 2018 by SRECTrade.

The Pennsylvania Solar Renewable Energy Credit (SREC) market has been through some changes since the fall of 2017. In October 2017, Governor Wolf signed Act 40 into law. On May 3, 2018, the PA Public Utilities Commission entered its final implementation order. The order clarified two main items:

PA certified SRECs issued for October 2017 generation and prior would maintain their PA SREC certification regardless if the generator was sited in the state or out of the state
- Out of state generators with RECs generated from November 2017 onward were reclassified as PA Tier I eligible. The PA program administrator and PJM GATS made these updates in the tracking registry in early May 2018.
Some out of state generators would be eligible to temporarily maintain SREC eligibility if their SRECs were sold under a preexisting contract, executed before Act 40 became law. For the generator to maintain eligibility the contract would have to be signed directly with an Electric Distribution Company (EDC) or Electric Generation Supplier (EGS). The contracting EDC or EGS would need to file a petition for approval with PUC within 60 days of the May 3, 2018 final implementation order. If approved, the out of state generator would only be able to maintain PA SREC eligibility for the term and quantity of the contract.
- On May 17, 2018, the PA PUC issued a follow on order that they will be taking into consideration comments filed by Community Energy to reconsider the requirements of who generators are contracted with in order to maintain PA SREC eligibility for out of state solar projects. Additionally, the PA PUC noted that it would stay the 60 day period for EDCs and EGSs to petition to qualify their contracts with out of state generators, pending further review and consideration of the comments filed by Community Energy. All PA PUC documents and comments can be found by searching Docket #2017-2631527 on the PA PUC site.

One of the most meaningful components of these changes in the PA SREC market has been the change in the price of PA SRECs. The spot market has increased more than 2.5x since this time last year (i.e. from ~$5/SREC in May 2017 to ~$13/SREC in May 2018). Pricing on a forward basis has also been positively impacted with more participants starting to show interest in transacting out the curve.

Fundamentally, the PA SREC market remains oversupplied. A very large bank of eligible SRECs from RY2016, 2017, and 2018 from sited and out of state projects (generation from October 2017 and prior) is the main driver of oversupply. Additionally, Pennsylvania’s solar carve-out is relatively small (0.50% by reporting year 2021) as compared to Maryland’s current 1.5% requirement in calendar year 2018 and New Jersey’s 3.2% requirement in reporting year 2018. For more specific details on potential supply scenarios click here for our latest PA SREC Market Update presentation.

Expected oversupply for reporting year 2018 is by nearly 2 million SRECs. While the analysis shows the oversupply becoming less meaningful moving forward, assuming relatively modest in-state build rates, the market could still expect varying degrees of oversupply (i.e. ~40-70% even in reporting year 2023). One potential factor that could change this oversupply dynamic dramatically would be market participants willingness to purchase PA certified out of state SRECs from the existing SREC bank (i.e. generation from October 2017 and prior). Since the PA PUC final implementation order has been clarified and PJM GATS and the PA AEPS administrator adjusted the SRECs in the tracking registry, demand for in-state SRECs has been much more prevalent than for out of state certified SRECs. The presentation enclosed herein includes a scenario demonstrating what supply would look like relative to demand if none of the out of state certified bank from October 2017 generation and prior were used in meeting current and future RPS obligations. It does not appear likely that this preference for in-state only demand would remain prevalent for a long period of time. It has been presented simply to show a scenario that would lead to one scenario of under-supply that would likely be recognized by the market and quickly corrected.

Lastly, due to the PA PUC staying the petition to qualify of out of state PA forward contracts for continued eligibility during the contract term, it is still unknown how these contracts will impact future supply. The enclosed analysis notes that this has not been taken into consideration in the scenarios presented herein, but please keep this in mind as you are reviewing this information.

As more updates become available we’ll provide more information. Should you have any questions about the enclosed analysis or need REC transaction and management services, please contact us.

Posted in Pennsylvania | Comments Off on Pennsylvania SREC Market Update

NJ Gov. Murphy Signs AB-3723 / SB-2314 Increasing State RPS

Posted May 25th, 2018 by SRECTrade.

On Wednesday, May 23rd, New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy (Dem) signed Assembly Bill 3723 (AB-3723) and Senate Bill 2314 (SB-2314), increasing the state’s Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) requirements. The bill establishes renewable energy goals of 21 percent by 2020, 35 percent by 2025, and 50 percent by 2030, making the New Jersey RPS one of the highest in the nation.

Notably, the state’s solar carve-out requirement is raised and accelerated to 5.1 percent of total electricity sales by EY2021 before beginning to ramp-down in 2024. The requirement ramps down in consideration of solar facilities that will be reaching the end of their 15-year SREC production eligibility term.

On the other hand, the bill lowers the solar alternative compliance payment (SACP) schedule to $268.00 in EY2019 with an additional $10.00 reduction each following year.

The bill also shortens the 15-year period that qualified solar projects can generate solar renewable energy credits (SREC) to ten years, effective for all New Jersey SREC Registration Program applications received as of the enactment date. Lastly, the bill mandates that the current SREC program be closed upon reaching the 5.1 percent target and no later than June 1, 2021. It is anticipated that a supplemental “SREC-II” program will follow shortly after the closure of the first program.

The bill also introduces other clean energy initiatives, including:

Community Solar: establishes the Community Solar Energy Pilot Program to allow utility customers access to solar projects that are located away from their properties, but within their utility’s service territory. The pilot program is planned to be converted to a permanent community solar program within 36 months.
Energy Efficiency: requires individual utilities to implement energy efficiency measures to reduce electricity usage by 2 percent and natural gas usage by 0.75 percent.
Energy Storage: mandates Gov. Murphy’s goal of achieving 600 MW of energy storage by 2021 and 2,000 MW by 2030.
Offshore Wind: establishes a goal of 3,500 MW of offshore wind by 2030 that will be supported by an offshore wind renewable energy credit (OREC) program.

Simultaneously, Gov. Murphy signed Executive Order No. 28, requiring state agencies to update the Energy Master Plan (EMP) that prepares a strategy for achieving 100 percent clean energy by January 1, 2050. The new EMP is scheduled to be finalized and published by June 1, 2019.

For more information on the bill and its passage through the New Jersey legislature, please visit our previous blog post on the topic here. SRECTrade expects to publish a detailed New Jersey supply and demand analysis reflecting this new legislation soon.

Tags: New Jersey, NJ, renewable portfolio standard, RPS, Solar Carve-Out
Posted in Environmental Policy, New Jersey, SREC Markets | Comments Off on NJ Gov. Murphy Signs AB-3723 / SB-2314 Increasing State RPS

PA PUC Enters Final Implementation Order of Act 40

Posted May 10th, 2018 by SRECTrade.

On Thursday, May 3rd, the Pennsylvania Public Utilities Commission (PUC) entered its Final Implementation Order of Act 40 of 2017, clarifying some questions that remained from its adoption of the Final Implementation Order. Notably, the entry confirmed that PA-certified but out-of-state facilities would not be grandfathered with solar renewable energy credit (SREC) eligibility (i.e. Tier I solar), since the PUC found that grandfathering these facilities would result in minimal improvement for state SREC prices and fail to effectuate the intentions of the PA General Assembly.

The entry also clarified that PA SRECs associated with energy generated after October 30, 2017 would be re-certified to non-solar RECs (i.e. Tier I non-solar). The PA REC Program Administrator and PJM GATS have already worked together to modify the Tier I certification numbers attributed to all out-of-state facilities and SRECs that no longer qualify for Tier I solar eligibility. This means that SRECs with a Month of Generation of November 2017 and later have now been re-certified as Tier I non-solar RECs.

Some facilities that were re-certified with Tier I non-solar eligibility will be permitted to temporarily maintain SREC certification if under an SREC contract with an electric distribution company (EDC) or electric generation supplier (EGS) serving PA customers. EDCs and EGSs seeking to qualify contracted RECs as Tier I solar-eligible under the Final Implementation Order’s ruling must file a petition within 60 days of the entry date of the Order (May 3rd). Please note that such facilities will only be permitted to maintain certification until the expiration of the SREC contract.

Moving forward, it appears that the PA REC Program Administrator will be responsible for working with PJM GATS to re-certify SREC-contracted facilities for Tier I non-solar REC generation once their contract term expires.

Additionally, the entry clarified that:

Solar facilities interconnected in PJM service territory are permitted to continue generating RECs eligible to be used toward Tier I non-solar requirements in the AEPS.
Out-of-state grid-supply solar facilities must be serving end-use electricity load in PA to continue to generate energy and SRECs eligible for compliance under the Tier I solar requirement. Specifically, solar facilities must meet one of the following criteria:
- Physical connection to a PA EDC customer’s internal electrical system
- Physical interconnection to an EDC’s distribution system
- Physical connection to a PA electric cooperative’s or municipal electric system’s distribution network
- Physical connection to any PA-located transmission system, including utility-scale solar facilities that are within a PA EDC’s service territory and operating under PJM wholesale generator rules
SRECs generated by out-of-state facilities prior to October 30, 2017 will maintain their Tier I solar certification

Tags: Act 40, Final Implementation Order, PA, Pennsylvania, Public Utilities Commission
Posted in Environmental Policy, Pennsylvania, SREC Markets | Comments Off on PA PUC Enters Final Implementation Order of Act 40

PA PUC Adopts Final Implementation Order of Act 40 – Impacts Out-of-State PA-Certified Solar Projects

Posted April 19th, 2018 by SRECTrade.

On Thursday, April 19th, the Pennsylvania Public Utilities Commission (PUC) adopted its Final Implementation Order of Act 40 of 2017. The Order amends the qualifications to certify Tier I solar photovoltaic facilities under Pennsylvania’s Alternative Energy Portfolio Standards (AEPS) Act. As summarized in our previous blog post, ambiguous language in Section 2804(2)(i) and Section 2804(2)(ii) of Act 40 made it unclear whether certified but out-of-state facilities would retain their certifications under the AEPS. The Order clarified the PUC’s interpretations of Section 2804(2)(i) and Section 2804(2)(ii) which are as follows:

Section 2804(2)(i) – “[a] certification originating within the geographical boundaries of this Commonwealth…” shall mean a facility located within PA having received an AEPS Tier I solar photovoltaic certification.
Section 2804(2)(ii) – shall only permit out-of-state facilities that are 1) already certified as AEPS Tier I Solar Photovoltaic and 2) entered into an SREC contract with a PA electric distribution company (EDC) or electric generation supplier (EGS) serving PA customers to maintain certification until the expiration of the contract.

Solar facilities that meet the two Section 2804(2)(ii) criteria listed above are limited to maintaining certification only for the applicable amount of Solar Renewable Energy Credits (SRECs) contractually committed to an EDC or EGS. EDCs and EGSs seeking to qualify SRECs under this interpretation must file a Petition with 60 days of the entry date of the Order.

In addition, the Order clarified that SRECs generated by certified but out-of-state facilities prior to October 30, 2017 will retain their Tier I solar qualification for their standard banking lifetime (current reporting year and following two). The Order did not clarify whether SRECs generated by such facilities after October 30, 2017 will also be able to retain their Tier I solar qualification.

At this time, it is unclear how implementation of these interpretations will be administered. SRECTrade will continue to monitor the proceedings and provide updates as they become available.

Tags: Out-of-state, PA, Pennsylvania, Public Utilities Commission, PUC
Posted in Environmental Policy, Pennsylvania, SREC Markets | Comments Off on PA PUC Adopts Final Implementation Order of Act 40 – Impacts Out-of-State PA-Certified Solar Projects

NJ Solar RPS Increase – New Jersey Assembly and Senate Pass AB-3723 / SB-2314

Posted April 13th, 2018 by SRECTrade.

On Thursday, April 12th, the New Jersey Assembly and Senate passed Assembly Bill 3723 (AB-3723) and Senate Bill 2314 (SB-2314). The bill now sits on the desk of Governor Phil Murphy (Dem) waiting to be signed, after passing the Assembly by a margin of 49-20-2 and the Senate by a margin of 29-8. The bill requires a number of action items to be carried out, including:

Requiring the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities to:
- Administer an energy storage analysis
- Advance, increase, and extend the solar carve-out schedule and reduce and extend the solar alternative compliance payment schedule
- Introduce structural changes to the state SREC program
- Implement energy efficiency and peak demand reduction programs
- Implement a “Community Solar Energy Pilot Program”
- Offer tax credits for specified offshore wind facilities
Requiring the Department of Labor and Workforce Development to establish job training programs for professionals in manufacturing and maintenance of offshore wind facilities

The bill requires 21% of statewide electricity sales to be derived from Class I renewable energy sources by January 1, 2020, 35% by January 1, 2025, and 50% by January 1, 2030. The cost of this requirement shall not exceed 9% of the electricity purchased by all NJ ratepayers for each energy year 2019-2021 and shall not exceed 7% in each energy year thereafter. In addition, all facilities filing SREC applications after the bill’s enactment date will be subject to a reduced SREC eligibility term of 10 years, down from 15.

No later than 180 days after the enactment of the bill, the board will implement rules to close the SREC program to new systems upon reaching the 5.1% solar carve-out target. The legislation intends to close the existing SREC program to new projects on or before June 1, 2021. Within 24 months from signing the legislation, the Board of Public Utilities will be required to conduct a study that evaluates how to modify or implement a new solar incentive program. A variety of market stakeholders will be consulted in the process to determine the next best steps forward for the NJ SREC market.

As shown below, the bill brings forward and raises the state’s solar carve-out requirements beginning with EY2019 and extends the requirements through EY2033. The requirement peaks at 5.10% in EY2021-2023 before gradually declining through EY2033. The reduction mechanic was introduced to account for solar facilities that will be reaching the end of their SREC production eligibility term.

The bill also reduces the solar alternative compliance payment (SACP) beginning with EY2019 and extends the SACP schedule through EY2033. The SACP level drops to $268 in EY2019 and then gradually decreases by $10 each year following.

For more information on the historical progress of the bill, please view our previous blog post on the topic here. SRECTrade will be publishing an updated New Jersey Supply and Demand Analysis to its blog shortly in consideration of this bill.

Tags: New Jersey, NJ, renewable portfolio standard, RPS
Posted in Environmental Policy, New Jersey, SREC Markets | Comments Off on NJ Solar RPS Increase – New Jersey Assembly and Senate Pass AB-3723 / SB-2314

Changes to PTS SREC Production Reporting to NEPOOL GIS

Posted April 13th, 2018 by SRECTrade.

On April 5th the Production Tracking System (PTS) announced that it would update the process for reporting SREC production to the New England Power Pool Generation Information System (NEPOOL GIS). Previously, PTS rounded down production to the nearest MWh before reporting to NEPOOL GIS. This meant that even if a system had produced 1250 kWh (the production amount needed to receive an SREC after the 0.8 factor is applied), the system would not have received its first SREC until it produced 2000 kWh.

This change took effect on the Q4 2017 NEPOOL GIS reporting period (which was due on April 10th). PTS will no longer roll over month-to-month fractional MWh production. Total monthly production in MWh, rounded to the nearest whole kilowatt-hour will be reported to the NEPOOL GIS. For example, if a system produces 1775 kWh in a quarter, PTS will report 1.775 MWh to NEPOOL GIS, whereas previously PTS would have reported 1.0 MWh. The NEPOOL GIS will then apply the SREC-II Factor to the aggregate generation. NEPOOL GIS will continue to carry-forward the partial SREC due to the SREC Factor.

Tags: Massachusetts
Posted in Massachusetts, SREC Markets | Comments Off on Changes to PTS SREC Production Reporting to NEPOOL GIS

Massachusetts SREC-I and SREC-II Update

Posted April 10th, 2018 by SRECTrade.

With the Q4 2017 NEPOOL GIS renewable energy certificate (REC) issuance nearly upon us, we figured it would be a good time to provide an update on the Massachusetts SREC-I and SREC-II markets. The SREC-I market is not subject to any new installed capacity and is capped at 653.3 MW of eligible capacity. The main factors driving supply and demand in the current state of the market are the 1) annual RPS SREC-I compliance obligations, 2) prompt year solar production and any eligible banked or reminted SRECs from prior years, and 3) total electric load served throughout the state. Given current RPS demand, as provided by the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (MA DOER) the 2017 compliance year for MA17 SREC-I is likely to be slightly over supplied by approximately 14,000 SRECs, less than 2% of estimated compliance obligation. For more specific details see our full presentation here. Note, this estimate is still subject to change due to final 2017 electricity supply figures and Q4 2017 SRECs issued. Pricing for MA2017 SREC-Is since the beginning of the year has ranged between $300 and $310, with recent transactions trading at the lower end of the range. Our enclosed presentation also provides a preliminary estimate for MA2018 SREC-I supply and demand. The analysis currently suggests under supply of approximately 85,000 SRECs, a little over 10% of the estimated obligation. Pricing for MA2018 SREC-Is since the beginning of the year for has ranged between $330 and $345, with recent transactions executed around $340/SREC.

With regards to MA SREC-II supply, the market is in the final stages of new solar capacity additions. The program will be capped to any new installed capacity once the Solar Massachusetts Renewable Target (SMART) program is finalized and implemented, expected for late Q2 / early Q3 2018. Recent capacity added has slowed month over month, but continues at a decent pace considering the market is limited to new commercial and reduced SREC factors for all project typees. During the last 6 months of 2017, installed capacity has been 37.2 MW per month on average and 92.1 MW for Q4 2017.

The outlook for the MA2017 SREC-II market is one of oversupply for 2017, with an estimate of more than 186,000 SRECs exceeding the estimated compliance obligation by almost 16%. For more details see the presentation here. Pricing for MA17 SREC-IIs has ranged between $265 and $270 as of late. While 2018 is still subject to capacity additions, the compliance period will also be impacted by the SCCA auction and banked SRECs from 2017 and prior. Our estimated outlook for 2018 is one of slight oversupply, almost equilibrium. Estimates point to over 17,000 SRECs in excess, exceeding the estimated compliance obligation by approximately 1%. Pricing for MA18 SREC-IIs has ranged between $270 and $280 since the beginning of the year.

Should you have any questions about the enclosed analysis or need transaction and management services, please contact us.

Posted in Massachusetts, SREC Markets | Comments Off on Massachusetts SREC-I and SREC-II Update