Archive for the ‘SREC Markets’ Category

Massachusetts SREC-II Update – September 2016

Posted September 26th, 2016 by SRECTrade.

The Department of Energy Resources (DOER) published an updated list of projects with a Statement of Qualification (SQA) on August 25, 2016. Since the last update in July not much has changed in the SREC-II landscape. Expected oversupply still remains the reality reflected in pricing for 2016. Similarly, monthly build-rates are more or less unchanged. The total installed capacity increased 65MW since the last update, bringing us to 573.54 MW. You can find our in-depth analysis here. Below, please find some highlights.

Based on the latest data, there are currently 573.54 MW of operational assets, with an additional 956.87 MW that is qualified, but not operational:

Installed Capacity

Finally, based on current build rates, we continue to see a gross oversupply for the MA2016 SREC-II market:

S, D

Thus far, the market has generated 82,758 MA2016 SREC-IIs and based on current build-rates and installed capacity, we estimate an additional 473,084 SRECs coming later in the year. Adding in the re-minted volumes of 67,046, we see a potential pool of supply upwards of 622,888. Compare that supply figure to the demand side of approximately 327,471 and we conclude the market is oversupplied by 90%. In other words, nearly half of all MA2016 SRECs may find their way to the Solar Credit Clearinghouse Auction next year.

 

Disclaimer. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) are for informational purposes only. The Materials are not intended as investment, tax, legal, or financial advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purpose or sale of any financial instrument. SRECTrade, Inc. does not warranty or guarantee the market data or other information included herein, as to its completeness, accuracy, or fitness for a particular purpose, express or implied, and such market data and information are subject to change without notice. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of SRECTrade, Inc. SRECTrade, Inc. may have issued, and may in the future issue, other communications, data, or reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein.

Copyright. This document is protected by copyright laws and contains material proprietary to SRECTrade, Inc. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) may not be reproduced, republished, distributed, transmitted, displayed, broadcasted or otherwise disseminated or exploited in any manner without the express prior written permission of SRECTrade, Inc. The receipt or possession of the Materials does not convey any rights to reproduce, disclose, or distribute its contents, or to manufacture, use, or sell anything that it may describe, in whole or in part. If consent to use the Materials is granted, reference and sourcing must be attributed to the Materials and to SRECTrade, Inc. If you have questions about the use or reproduction of the Materials, please contact SRECTrade, Inc.

Maryland SREC Update – September 2016

Posted September 15th, 2016 by SRECTrade.

As the growth of the Maryland solar market continues to outpace the state’s RPS framework, the Maryland SREC market has become more and more challenging to navigate.  The SREC market is clearly oversupplied and the market is trading in line with expectations that this will continue well into the future.  In order to better inform the conversation around the true state of the MD SREC market we’ve taken a closer look at data made available by the PJM GATS regarding the rate at which new solar capacity is being brought online in the state.

You can find a copy of our updated Maryland capacity presentation here.

Through August 2016 there were 157,377 SRECs left over from compliance years 2014 and 2015.  Thus far in 2016 (through July 2016 generation), 344,792 CY2016 SRECs have also been issued.  Assuming that the observed average monthly build rate of 21.4 MW/month continues through the year, we project that 293,183 additional SRECs will be generated in compliance year 2016.  Taking together the existing inventory of available prior-period SRECs together with the projected production for the remainder of 2016, we foresee an oversupply of 363,600 SRECs, or approximately 84% over the total 2016 RPS requirement, by the end of the year.

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There are a few important trends to note here.  First, while the trailing twelve month (TTM) average monthly build has technically increased since our last Maryland capacity update in June (21.4MW/month now vs. the 19.6MW/month reported in June) this is actually due to the lower build rates of Q2 2015 falling out of the TTM measurement.  The most recent data shows that the build rate actually peaked in the three months of December 2015 through February of 2016.  Those three months averaged a 35.9MW/month build rate, while the three months immediately following dropped to a significantly less aggressive 17.5MW/month average.  This shows that the rapid growth witnessed in the Maryland market has indeed begun to slow due to weaker support from the SREC market.

Secondly, this recent slow down also has significant implications for the likely path the Maryland market will follow over the coming years.  As we have already seen monthly build numbers retreat from their Dec15-Feb16 highs, we are more confident that the Maryland market will fall into a long term trend somewhere between 50% and 75% of the current TTM average of 21.4MW/month. The enclosed analysis includes two scenarios, the first with the RPS requirements as currently set and the second with the RPS increase as proposed under SB0921/HB1106 The RPS increase proposed was vetoed by Governor Hogan in May of 2016. While industry stakeholders continue to advocate for an RPS increase, it is uncertain what form a new piece of legislation could take. For purposes of showing the state of the market under current and the vetoed legislation (i.e. some form of increase), supply and demand scenarios have been presented under both RPS requirements. Assuming a build rate decline of 50-75% of current TTM average, the market will be in a persistent state of oversupply within the range of approximately 50% to 115% through 2018 under both RPS requirements.

We want to emphasize that these projections are derived entirely from available historical data based on observations of assets built and registered with PJM GATS.  The monthly build rates remain subject to change for some time into the future as the registry receives and processes new project registrations.  Also, these numbers do not incorporate data from the PJM interconnection queue.  While this queue is noteworthy due to the presence of multiple relatively large utility-scale installations, it is impossible to predict which of these will indeed come online and which will fall away because of deteriorating project economics.  We acknowledge that if even one of the largest five projects listed in the interconnection queue comes online with SREC eligibility our projections would need to be significantly revised.

We will continue to track the state of the Maryland SREC market as more data is made available.  Please feel free to reach out to anyone on the SRECTrade brokerage team to discuss this analysis or any of the assumptions used herein.

 

Disclaimer. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) are for informational purposes only. The Materials are not intended as investment, tax, legal, or financial advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purpose or sale of any financial instrument. SRECTrade, Inc. does not warranty or guarantee the market data or other information included herein, as to its completeness, accuracy, or fitness for a particular purpose, express or implied, and such market data and information are subject to change without notice. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of SRECTrade, Inc. SRECTrade, Inc. may have issued, and may in the future issue, other communications, data, or reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein.

Copyright. This document is protected by copyright laws and contains material proprietary to SRECTrade, Inc. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) may not be reproduced, republished, distributed, transmitted, displayed, broadcasted or otherwise disseminated or exploited in any manner without the express prior written permission of SRECTrade, Inc. The receipt or possession of the Materials does not convey any rights to reproduce, disclose, or distribute its contents, or to manufacture, use, or sell anything that it may describe, in whole or in part. If consent to use the Materials is granted, reference and sourcing must be attributed to the Materials and to SRECTrade, Inc. If you have questions about the use or reproduction of the Materials, please contact SRECTrade, Inc.

DOER Announces Final 2017 Compliance Obligation and Minimum Standard

Posted September 1st, 2016 by SRECTrade.

On Wednesday, August 31, the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER) announced the final 2017 Solar Carve-out (SREC-I) and Solar Carve-out II (SREC-II) Compliance Obligations and Minimum Standards. This announcement follows the results of the SREC-I and SREC-II Solar Credit Clearinghouse Auctions.

Notably, this announcement differs greatly from the preliminary announcement in July. In particular, the DOER announced that the final SREC-II Minimum Standard for load under contracts signed prior to May 8, 2016 is 2.0197% (969,635 MWhs), reduced from 2.2960% (1,102,311 MWhs).

Solar Carve-out (SREC-I)

The DOER has determined that the 2017 Compliance Obligation for the SREC-I program will be 783,183 MWh and that the Minimum Standard will be 1.6313%. The 2017 Minimum Standard for load under contracts signed before June 28, 2013 will be 0.9861%. The Determination of the CY 2017 Total Compliance Obligation and Minimum Standard, published by the DOER, outlines how this Minimum Standard was calculated.

SREC-I Min Std

Solar Carve-out II (SREC-II)

The DOER has also calculated the 2017 Compliance Obligation and Minimum Standard for the SREC-II program, which are 1,374,406 MWh and 2.8628%, respectively. The DOER outlined how this preliminary Minimum Standard was determined in its “CY 2017 Calculation of Minimum Standard Guideline”.

SREC-II Min Std

Since all Retail Electricity Suppliers are exempt from additional obligations resulting from the expansion of the SREC-II Program Capacity Cap, the DOER established a baseline Compliance Obligation and Minimum Standard for load under contracts signed on or prior to May 7, 2016. The DOER’s calculation of the Final 2017 Compliance Obligation and Minimum Standard were similar to its calculation of the Preliminary 2017 Compliance Obligation and Minimum Standard (detailed here), but used 825 MW as the capacity that it expects would have been in operation had the SREC-II Program Capacity Cap not been expanded. The DOER used the 825 MW value to reflect its estimate of the generation facilities that would be qualified and operational by the end of the year – a significant reduction from the original 947 MW projection.

Using the 825 MW estimate, the DOER determined a total baseline Compliance Obligation of 969,635 MWhs and a Minimum Standard of 2.0197%. These two figures are significantly less than their counterparts from the preliminary 2017 Compliance Obligation and Minimum Standard, which were 1,102,311 MWhs and 2.2960%, respectively.

SREC-II Obligation Chart

The latest Solar Carve-Out II Qualified Units report (updated on August 25) identified nearly 575 MW of capacity as qualified and operational under the SREC-II program. Comparing the 825 MW figure that the DOER is targeting to the existing 575 MW, the market would need to more than double the Last Twelve Months (LTM) monthly average build-rate (30 MW) to reach that threshold.

For more information on the July announcement of the Preliminary 2017 Compliance Obligation, please visit our blog post on the topic.

D.C. RPS Bill Published in Register

Posted August 23rd, 2016 by SRECTrade.

Following Mayor Bowser’s signature last month, the Renewable Portfolio Standard Expansion Amendment Act of 2016 is now published in the D.C. Register.

A21-466 was published in Volume 63, Number 33 of the District of Columbia Register on August 5, 2016 under the Actions of the Council of the District of Columbia. The PDF of the issue is available here.

As enacted, B21-0560 raises the renewable portfolio and solar requirements to 50% and 5% by the year 2032, respectively, and adds waste heat from combined and sanitary sewage systems and effluence from wastewater treatment to the list of Tier 1 renewable sources. In addition, the bill increases financial penalties for electricity suppliers who fail to comply with the annual renewable energy portfolio standard requirements. This financial penalty is known as the Alternative Compliance Payment, or ACP. Finally, the bill establishes a program within the Department of Energy and the Environment to assist low-income homeowners with installing solar systems on their homes.

MA DOER Issues Draft Guidelines for Revised SREC-II Market Factors

Posted August 16th, 2016 by SRECTrade.

Yesterday, the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER) announced its draft Guidelines relating to the revised SREC factors for the Solar Carve-out-II program. The draft Guidelines can be found on the DOER’s website, which includes the Adjusted SREC Factor Guideline Draft as well as draft versions of the 225 CMR 14 Solar Guideline – Extension Guideline and Detailed Construction Costs Form. The draft Guidelines follow the July 1, 2016 promulgation of the Emergency Regulations. As the DOER explains, “Recognizing that a long-term sustainable solution will take time to develop and that many projects are in advanced stages of development, the emergency regulation is intended to address market uncertainty and establish a smooth transition from SREC-II to the next incentive program.”

The draft Guidelines contain both clarification on construction timeline extensions and the revised SREC factor guidelines. For construction extensions, as provided in 225 CMR 14.05(9)(s)(4), a qualified Solar Carve-out II Renewable Generation Unit that is larger than 25 kW DC that has not received the authorization to interconnect or permission to operate by January 8, 2017, and cannot demonstrate that it is mechanically complete by January 8, 2017, can request a construction deadline extension to May 8, 2017. Extensions will be provided if a project can demonstrate to the satisfaction of the DOER that the project has expended at least 50% of its total construction costs by January 8, 2017.  The 225 CMR Solar Guideline – Extension Guideline sets forth the procedures and requirements for Solar Carve-Out II Renewable Generation Units that seek this extension. The draft Guideline also includes an Excel Spreadsheet and Attestation Form to be completed and submitted to the DOER.

The new SREC factors, as provided for by 225 CMR 14.05(9)(l)5, shall apply to any Solar Carve-out II Renewable Generation Unit that meets the following criteria:

  1. Nameplate capacity less than or equal to 25 kW and authorized to interconnect after January 8, 2017; or
  2. Nameplate capacity greater than 25 kW that receives an extension pursuant to 225 CMR 14.05(9)(s)4.a.

The Adjusted SREC Factor Guideline provides new SREC Factors for each SREC Market Sector. Under the revised Guideline, all projects that meet the criteria outlined above shall receive an SREC Factor that is reduced by approximately 15-20% from current values. A comparison of the current SREC Factors and the revised SREC Factors is provided below:

Screen Shot 2016-08-16 at 5.13.34 PM

 

Screen Shot 2016-08-16 at 5.13.42 PM

The DOER invites comments on the draft Guidelines through August 22, 2016 at 5:00PM. Comments can be sent to DOER.SREC@state.ma.us with the subject line “SREC-II Guideline Comments”.

Additional information concerning the SREC-I & SREC-II markets in Massachusetts can be found on our Massachusetts market page.

New Jersey SREC Update – August 2016

Posted August 15th, 2016 by SRECTrade.

We recently received an update on the New Jersey solar market from the office of New Jersey’s Clean Energy Program, bringing us up to date on new solar capacity built through June.  As of June 30th, New Jersey had a total installed capacity of 1,793.79MW – a 61.49MW addition from the figure previously reported as of the end of May.

The 61.49MW addition is obviously noteworthy at first glance, and the market has immediately responded by selling off significantly in the days that followed the report’s release.  A closer look into the data, however, provides a more nuanced understanding of what that figure really represents.  Given the magnitude of the market reaction after this release we took the opportunity to update our New Jersey capacity models to provide a framework to better understand the data.

You can find our updated New Jersey SREC capacity presentation here.

While it is true that 62MW of new projects were added to the cumulative total of installed capacity, that number actually represents revised figures for monthly installations dating back to January 2015.  The 62MW can be broken out as follows:

  • 11MW of upward revisions attributed to 2015 monthly figures
  • 32MW of upward revisions attributed to 2016 monthly figures
  • 19MW of new build attributed to June 2016

Given the distribution of the newly reported capacity increase, the result on the observed average build rates is not quite as extreme as we have seen other groups report.  Using the newly updated numbers, the trailing twelve month average build rate is about 22.5MW/month and the 2016 YTD average is 25.7MW/month.

In aggregate, the New Jersey RPS is quite large and this recent surge in build in and of itself does not necessarily tip the overall balance of the SREC market.  While we have seen a broad sell off in New Jersey SRECs across most vintages, we believe the New Jersey market can maintain current pricing even if the build rate remains elevated in the short term.  What has most likely sent SREC prices lower is the possible impact that a more long-term increase in build rates might have on the balance of the NJ SREC market.

Looking ahead there are two very different possible scenarios.  For the sake of keeping RPS comparisons constant through this analysis, we will make the assumption that NJ SB2276 (which increases the NJ RPS solar requirement slightly) successfully makes its way through the legislative process and is formally adopted.   First, the solar sector could react to the recent drop in SREC values and regress from its current trend to a less aggressive – though still above the historical average – rate of 17MW per month.  A build rate averaging somewhere close to 17MW per month would keep solar installations just slightly ahead of goals set by the current RPS schedule, leaving us no more than 5% oversupplied in any given year through 2021.  This would likely leave SREC prices stable and trading at consistently strong levels.

The alternative is to presume that the most recent increase represents a “new normal” for New Jersey solar.  An average build rate of 34MW per month, which more closely tracks the current trend, extrapolated out over the next five years would result in a very significant oversupply that would almost certainly push SREC prices lower in 2019 and beyond.   A build rate anywhere near 34MW per month eventually outpaces the growth built into the current RPS schedule and overwhelms the market structure that has been put in place through recent legislation.

We will focus on following how this trend develops over the coming six months.  If the solar industry does indeed respond to the price signals being sent by the NJ SREC market, and build rates normalize to more sustainable rates, then New Jersey solar economics will continue to benefit from strong SREC prices.  If, however, developers ignore these signals and continue to aggressively install new assets irrespective of RPS support we will likely see SREC prices continue to retreat in a manner that reflects the underlying shift in the balance of SREC supply and demand.

As always, we will continue to monitor these trends and share our analysis as new information becomes available.  In the meantime please feel free to reach out to your SRECTrade coverage with any questions or comments.

 

Disclaimer. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) are for informational purposes only. The Materials are not intended as investment, tax, legal, or financial advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purpose or sale of any financial instrument. SRECTrade, Inc. does not warranty or guarantee the market data or other information included herein, as to its completeness, accuracy, or fitness for a particular purpose, express or implied, and such market data and information are subject to change without notice. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of SRECTrade, Inc. SRECTrade, Inc. may have issued, and may in the future issue, other communications, data, or reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein.

Copyright. This document is protected by copyright laws and contains material proprietary to SRECTrade, Inc. This document, data, and/or any of its components (collectively, the “Materials”) may not be reproduced, republished, distributed, transmitted, displayed, broadcasted or otherwise disseminated or exploited in any manner without the express prior written permission of SRECTrade, Inc. The receipt or possession of the Materials does not convey any rights to reproduce, disclose, or distribute its contents, or to manufacture, use, or sell anything that it may describe, in whole or in part. If consent to use the Materials is granted, reference and sourcing must be attributed to the Materials and to SRECTrade, Inc. If you have questions about the use or reproduction of the Materials, please contact SRECTrade, Inc.

MA DPU Establishes Net Metering “Notification Date” as September 26, 2016

Posted August 3rd, 2016 by SRECTrade.

On July 29, 2016, the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities (the “DPU”) issued its Order Announcing Notification Date and Directives to Distribution Companies in its proceeding under 16-64-D, establishing the Net Metering “Notification Date” as September 26, 2016. Pursuant to Chapter 75 of the Acts of 2016D.P.U. 16-64-C, and as confirmed by this Order, there are three strict criteria that must be met for a private net metering project to receive net metering credits under the old regime:

  1. Submission of an Application for Cap Allocation (ACA) to the Massachusetts System of Assurance of Net Metering Eligibility (System of Assurance) for a net metering cap allocation prior to the Notification Date of September 26, 2016 by 2:00pm;
  2. Receipt of confirmation from the System of Assurance Administrator that the application (ACA) is complete; and
  3. Receipt of a ACA cap allocation by January 8, 2017.

In its Order, the DPU determined that “the best option to result in a smooth transition to a stable and equitable solar net metering market” was to align the timing for transition to the new net metering credits policy with the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER)’s SREC-II program. In selecting September 26, 2016 as the “Notification Date”, the DPU calculated the maximum amount of time that could be required to obtain a cap allocation on or before January 8, 2017, which was determined to be 70 business days. In addition, the September 26 date is exactly 60 calendar days after the Order’s announcement of the Notification Date. In consideration of these two timelines, the DPU determined that this date would provide enough time for systems to plan for, apply for, and receive a net metering cap allocation under the existing framework.

For more information on the current and new net metering regulation in the state of Massachusetts, please visit our previous blog post on the topic.

MA DOER Announces Solar Credit Clearinghouse Auction Results

Posted July 29th, 2016 by SRECTrade.

Today, the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER) announced that both of the 2015 Solar Carve-out (SREC-I) and Solar Carve-out II (SREC-II) auctions have fully cleared in the first round.

Preliminary results for the SREC-I auction included 41 unique bidders submitting a total bid volume of 49,886 – more than sufficient demand to clear the available auction volume of 1,898 SRECs. Similarly, the results for the SREC-II auction included 9 unique bidders submitting a total bid volume of 112,252, which cleared the available auction volume of 67,046 SREC-IIs.

SCCA Auction Results3

The DOER and EnerNOC continue to certify and finalize the auction results, and will publicize more details on the final results on the SREC-I and SREC-II auction webpages next week.

Mayor Bowser Signs D.C. RPS Bill

Posted July 26th, 2016 by SRECTrade.

D.C. Mayor Muriel E. Bowser hosted a press conference yesterday to sign the Renewable Portfolio Standard Expansion Act of 2016. As enacted, B21-0560 raises the renewable portfolio and solar requirements to 50% and 5% by the year 2032, respectively, and adds waste heat from combined and sanitary sewage systems and effluence from wastewater treatment to the list of Tier 1 renewable sources. In addition, the bill increases financial penalties for electricity suppliers who fail to comply with the annual renewable energy portfolio standard requirements. This financial penalty is known as the Alternative Compliance Payment, or ACP. Finally, the bill establishes a program within the Department of Energy and the Environment to assist low-income homeowners with installing solar systems on their homes.

Councilmember Cheh introduced the bill earlier this year, and the Council unanimously passed the bill in late June. The expanded RPS not only increases access to clean energy for D.C. residents, but establishes a long-term pipeline for green jobs and businesses by raising demand for Tier 1 RECs and SRECs. The increased demand will incentivize the continued growth of D.C.’s solar industry, which has grown by 170% over the last year. The chart below summarizes the new RPS and Solar Carve-out schedule by requirement year.
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The total RPS requirement must be met by Tier 1 Renewable Sources, which includes the new sources added by the Expansion Act. In 2032 and thereafter, the District’s RPS will be set at 50% with a 5% solar carve-out. Please note that, although the SACP Schedule is changing for the 2017+ years from the current schedule, the RPS schedule for years 2017-2023 is unchanged under the Expansion Act. It is not until years 2024 and onward that the RPS requirements are changed by this new law.

Mayor Bowser is confident that the RPS Expansion Act will enable the District’s diverse populations to benefit from solar in a meaningful way. Speaking at her press conference, she said that the District “…will serve 100,000 low-income households by 2032—that’s more than 6,000 homes per year, and we’ll reduce their electricity bills by 50%, as a result. We’ll be creating at least 100 green  jobs in the first year with that number growing every year through 2032. That means reducing carbon emissions, lowering residents’ energy bills, and providing pathways to the middle class through the burgeoning marketplace of clean energy – all at the same time.”

The newly signed legislation is slated to become effective after the Congressional review period.

MA DOER Announces Preliminary 2017 Compliance Obligation

Posted July 25th, 2016 by SRECTrade.

Friday, July 22, 2016, the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER) announced the preliminary 2017 Solar Carve-out (SREC-I) and Solar Carve-out II (SREC-II) Compliance Obligations and Minimum Standards. Customarily, the DOER estimates these values prior to administering the Solar Credit Clearinghouse Auction each year. The final 2017 Minimum Standards will be announced on or before August 30th, after both the SREC-I and SREC-II Auctions have concluded.

Solar Carve-out (SREC-I)

Notably, the DOER projects that the final 2017 Compliance Obligation for the SREC-I program will be approximately 783,181 MWhs and that the Minimum Standard will be approximately 1.6313%. These values will be increased to 785,077 MWhs and 1.6352%, respectively, if the SREC-I auction does not fully clear in the first two rounds. The 2017 Minimum Standard for load under contracts signed before June 28, 2013 will be 0.9861%.

The DOER published a resource outlining its calculation of the preliminary SREC-I Minimum Standard.

Preliminary 2017 Compliance Obligation SREC-I Table

Solar Carve-out II (SREC-II)

Regarding the SREC-II Program, the DOER established a baseline Compliance Obligation and Minimum Standard that would have applied to Retail Electricity Suppliers had the RPS Class I Emergency Regulation not been filed on April 8, 2016; these suppliers are exempt from any additional obligations resulting from the expansion of the SREC-II Program Capacity Cap.

To calculate this baseline Minimum Standard, the DOER first determined the expected MWh/year that would have resulted had the SREC-II Program Capacity Cap remained 947 MW by:

  1. Identifying the percentage shares of MW currently qualified under each SREC-II Market Sector;
  2. Multiplying these percentages by the original 947 MW SREC-II Program Capacity Cap;
  3. Multiplying these totals by (1) their respective SREC Factors, (2) a 13.51% expected capacity factor, and (3) 8,760 hours/year.

The DOER then summed these values and combined the auction volume and banked SREC-II volume from the 2015 Compliance Filings, resulting in a baseline Compliance Obligation of 1,102,311 MWhs and a Minimum Standard of 2.2960%. These values will be increased to 1,169,357 MWhs and 2.4357%, respectively, if the SREC-II auction does not fully clear in the first two rounds.

Preliminary 2017 Compliance Obligation SREC-II Table 2

Additionally, the DOER calculated the preliminary 2017 SREC-II Compliance Obligation and Minimum Standard for load under contracts signed after May 8, 2016 – 1,496,188 MWhs and 3.1164%, respectively. These values will be increased to 1,563,234 MWhs and 3.2561% if the SREC-II auction does not fully clear in the first two rounds.

Preliminary 2017 Compliance Obligation SREC-II Table

The DOER also published a resource outlining its calculation of the preliminary SREC-II Minimum Standard.

Solar Credit Clearinghouse Auctions

The first rounds of the SREC-I and SREC-II Solar Credit Clearinghouse Auctions are scheduled for July 29, 2016. A second and third round will be held as needed the following week should these auctions not fully clear.

The DOER has also provided slight updates to the volumes of SRECs available in the Auctions: 1,896 in SREC-I and 67,046 in SREC-II.

SRECTrade will continue to monitor the proceedings of the Solar Credit Clearinghouse Auctions and will report the outcomes of the Auctions once the results become readily available.