Archive for the ‘SREC Pricing’ Category

NREL SREC webinar will feature SRECTrade, NJ BPU and MA DOER

Posted January 17th, 2012 by SRECTrade.

On Wednesday, January 18th at 3pm EST (12pm PST), SRECTrade CEO Brad Bowery will join Mike Winka of the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities’ Office of Clean Energy (BPU OCE) and Mike Judge of the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER) for a free webinar hosted by Lori Bird of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL).

The webinar will discuss the new NREL Report on the solar renewable energy certificate (SREC) markets. The comprehensive report written by Bird, Jenny Heeter and Claire Kreycik discusses key policy issues that define the structure of these markets and offers a state by state summary of how SRECs are utilized to meet RPS goals in a growing number of states.

Registration for the free webinar is still open and there are already over 500 participants enrolled. Please click here to register.

Among other data, the NREL Report dives into SREC market pricing, tracking spot and forward sales in each state. Below is a chart from the report reflecting spot market pricing on SRECTrade from a 2-year period between 2009 and 2011.

SREC Prices 2009-2011

To learn more, download the NREL Report and/or register here for the webinar at 3pm EST on January 18th.

January 2012 SREC Auction Results

Posted January 10th, 2012 by SRECTrade.

SRECTrade’s January 2012 SREC Auction closed last week. Below are the clearing prices by vintage across the markets SRECTrade is currently active in.

January SREC Prices Energy Year Ending
State 2010 2011 2012*
Delaware $65.00
Maryland In-State $204.99
Maryland Out-of-State $35.00
Massachusetts
New Jersey $245.00 $245.00
Ohio In-State
Ohio Out-of-State $30.00 $35.00
Pennsylvania $20.00 $29.99
Washington, DC $250.00 $270.00

Notes:
*Delaware, New Jersey and Pennsylvania operate on a June-May energy year.
Green text represents a price increase over the last auction clearing price for that vintage, red text represents a decrease.
“-” reflects no sale, which would result if there were no matching bids and offers that cleared for a sale in the auction.

State Market Observations:

Please note, all capacity references are from the latest SRECTrade capacity analysis and reference the amount of supply registered as of the end of December. Additional details regarding SREC issuance are provided in the capacity analysis.

Delaware (Supply: 25.5 MW | Demand: 19.8 MW): Pricing increased slightly this period, trading up to $65.00/SREC. The Delaware PSC approved the SREC Procurement Pilot Program for long term contract solicitations. As of January 3, 2012, PJM GATS reported the issuance of approximately 13,560 DE2011-12 vintage SRECs. Additional SRECs from prior eligible periods may also impact the market should there be a demand for these older vintage SRECs.

Maryland (In-state Supply: 37.8 MW | Demand: 27.6 MW): SRECs declined slightly to $204.99 this past auction period. While not seeing any demand all year long, MD2011 Out-of-State traded at $35/SREC. The state continues on pace to maintain a balanced supply relative to demand for the compliance year. As 2011 compliance obligations are finalized, a shortage of SRECs in the state, if any, will be reflected by an increase in prices at the end of the trading period.

Massachusetts (Operational Supply: 32.5 MW | Demand: 55.7 MW): There was no sale of MA2011 SRECs this period. The next quarterly MA SREC auction will close on Tuesday, January 17, 2012.

New Jersey (Supply: 483.2 MW* | Demand: 368 MW): The 2012 market increased to $245 this auction period. Approximately 15% of the available supply in the auction cleared, representing a gap between buyer and seller’s expectation of value. Oversupply continues to grow as the state has averaged 32.0 MW installed per month since the beginning of the compliance period. October 2011 saw an increase in 41.2 MW. *Note: This figure represents the capacity registered in PJM GATS as of December 2011. Please reference the capacity analysis link above for details on NJ Office of Clean Energy installed capacity figures.

Ohio (In-State Supply: 29.0 MW; Out-of-state Supply: 68.0 MW | Demand: 39.1 MW) : There was no sale of OH2011 sited SRECs. The out-of-state SREC market saw activity, increasing in value from $30/SREC to $35/SREC.

Pennsylvania (Supply: 159.4 MW | Demand 41.2 MW): PA2011 SRECs traded up to $20/SREC and PA2012 increased to $29.99/SREC. HB 1508 will go before the Pennsylvania Commerce Committee this Wednesday, 1/11/12.

Washington, DC (Supply: 21.7 MW | Demand: 41.9 MW): Prices continue to increase as legislation closing the DC market borders and increasing requirements take effect on the market. The 2010 vintage cleared at $255.16/SREC, while the 2011 vintage cleared at $270/SREC. Note, the SREC and capacity figures do not take into consideration the amount of electricity delivered into the district that may be exempt from complying with the Distributed Generation Amendment Act increases, considering some electricity contracts may have been signed prior to the amendment’s implementation

For historical pricing please see this link. The next SRECTrade auction covering Q3 MA2011 generation closes on Tuesday, January 17 at 5 p.m. ET. The following auction covering all markets closes on Tuesday, January 31 at 5 p.m. ET.

December 2011 SREC Auction Results

Posted December 2nd, 2011 by SRECTrade.

SRECTrade’s December 2011 SREC Auction has closed. Below are the clearing prices at which SRECs traded this month.

December SREC Prices Energy Year Ending
State 2010 2011 2012*
Delaware $60.00 $60.10
Maryland In-State $210.00
Maryland Out-of-State
Massachusetts $530.00
New Jersey $225.00 $225.00
Ohio In-State $370.00
Ohio Out-of-State $30.00 $30.00
Pennsylvania $20.00 $10.00 $18.00
Washington, DC $176.00 $201.00

Notes:
*Delaware, New Jersey and Pennsylvania operate on a June-May energy year.
Green text represents a price increase over the last auction clearing price for that vintage, red text represents a decrease.
“-” reflects no sale, which would result if there were no matching bids and offers that cleared for a sale in the auction.

State Market Observations:

Please note, all capacity references are from the latest SRECTrade capacity analysis and reference the amount of supply registered as of the end of November. Additional details regarding SREC issuance are provided in the capacity analysis.

Delaware (Supply: 22.8 MW | Demand: 19.5 MW): Legislation increasing the SREC requirement went into effect this past June but the market has yet to pick up in response. The Delaware PSC approved the SREC Procurement Pilot Program for long term contract solicitations. Meanwhile, the SREC market will likely pick up at the end of the energy year when electricity suppliers are more active.

Maryland (In-State Supply: 33.5 MW | Demand: 26.9 MW): SRECs increased 5.0% in value to $210 this past auction period. The state seems on pace to maintain a balanced supply relative to demand for the compliance year. As 2011 comes to an end, a shortage of SRECs in the state, if any, will be reflected by an increase in prices at the end of the trading period in the first quarter of 2012. Out-of-state SRECs continue to be a non-factor in Maryland.

Massachusetts (Operational Supply: 30.9 MW | Demand: 55.7 MW): Mass SREC values declined slightly to $530, from $535, in the December 2011 auction. Volume during this period was lower as most supply traded in the auction post the Q2 2011 issuance on October 17, 2011. The next big quarterly MA SREC auction will close on Monday, January 16, 2012.

New Jersey (Supply: 448 MW | Demand: 368 MW): The 2012 market stayed flat at $225 this trading period. Oversupply continues to grow as the state has averaged 27.1 MW installed per month since the beginning of the compliance period. Estimates for October 2011 are forecast at approximately 44 MW. For a more in depth look at New Jersey’s capacity and SREC issuance see this post.

Ohio (In-State Supply: 27.7 MW  Out-of-State Supply: 61.3 MW | Demand: 37.7 MW) : In-State SRECs dropped 2.5% to $370/SREC. The out-of-state SREC market saw activity, but declined in value from $55/SREC to $30/SREC.

Pennsylvania (Supply: 152.0 MW | Demand 40.4 MW): PA2011 SRECs stayed flat at $10/SREC and PA2012 declined from prior periods to $18/SREC. HB 1508 was recently introduced to address the state’s SREC market. This marks the beginning of a long process to rescue the PA SREC market. Until then, SRECs will continue to bottom out.

Washington, DC (Supply: 21.5 MW | Demand: 41.9 MW): Prices continue to increase as new legislation closing the DC market borders and increasing requirements take effect on the market.

For historical pricing please see this link. The order window for the January 2012 auction will close on Friday, January 6, 2012 at 5:00 p.m Eastern. For more information, please visit www.srectrade.com.

Delaware PSC Approves SREC Procurement Pilot Program

Posted November 15th, 2011 by SRECTrade.

The Delaware Public Service Commission approved the SREC Procurement Pilot Program on November 8th, 2011. This program will allow qualified solar energy system owners to sell their SRECs at a fixed price for the next 20 years.

The program will only be open to certain DE solar owners, for example, eligible facility owners must have received approval of their “Accepted Completed Solar System Interconnection Application” on or after December 1st 2010. Another requirement stipulates that the facility must not have received supplemental funding from a public source other than grants associated with the Delaware Green Energy Program “GEP”.

The number of SRECs to be procured is tiered according to the system size from which they are obtained. They will also be priced accordingly. Based on the requirements for June 2011 through May 2012, the numbers and price are

Tier Size (kW) Number of SRECs Percentage of Total SRECs Price, 1st 10 years Price, next 10 years
1 <50 2972 13.4% $260 base, $235 alt+ $50
2a 50 – 250 2,000 9.1% $240 base, $175 alt+ $50
2b 250 – 500 2,000 9.1% Lowest Bid Price* $50
3 500 – 2,000 4,500 20.4% Lowest Bid Price* $50
4 >2,000 10,600 48% Lowest Bid Price* $50
+Alternative pricing for projects that received a GEP grant before December 10 2010.
* Prices for tiers 2b, 3 and 4 will be decided by competitive bidding amongst the applicants.

In the event of oversubscription for facilities in Tier 1 and 2A, systems will be eliminated via lottery, starting with systems enrolled in the equipment or workforce bonus program.

Payments will be made quarterly for Tier 1 and monthly for Tiers 2 and 3. The energy production must be measured by at least a standard, utility grade meter and online monitoring for Tier 1 systems, and a revenue grade meter with online monitoring for Tiers 2 and 3.

Facilities are obliged to deliver the number of SRECs as estimated for their system size when they apply. The Sustainable Energy Utility is obliged to purchase up to 110% of the estimated SRECs, but may choose not to purchase any additional surplus SRECs.

This program will likely commence this winter or spring, and SRECTrade will be supporting this program for all of our installers and their customers. Look out for a future email regarding the SREC Pilot Program.

November 2011 SREC Auction Results

Posted November 1st, 2011 by SRECTrade.

SRECTrade’s November 2011 SREC Auction has completed. Below are the clearing prices at which SRECs traded this month.

November SREC Prices Energy Year Ending
State 2010 2011 2012*
Delaware $88.99
Maryland In-State $174.98 $200.00
Maryland Out-of-State
Massachusetts $535.00**
New Jersey $670.00 $225.00
Ohio In-State $380.00
Ohio Out-of-State $55.00
Pennsylvania $10.00
Washington, DC $119.00 $150.00

Notes:
*Delaware, New Jersey and Pennsylvania operate on a June-May energy year.
**Massachusetts Q2 auction occurred on October 17th
Green text represents a price improvement over October, red text represents a decrease.
“-” reflects no sale, which would result if there were no matching bids and offers that cleared for a sale in the auction.

State Market Observations:

Delaware (Supply: 22.7 MW | Demand: 19.5 MW): Legislation increasing the SREC requirement went into effect this past June but the market has yet to pick up in response. Stakeholders in DE continue to work to wards a long-term SREC contract solicitation program for new facilities. This program should be approved within the next month. Meanwhile, the SREC market will likely pick up at the end of the energy year when electricity suppliers are more active.

Maryland (Supply: 30.8 MW | Demand: 26.9 MW): SRECs continue to hover around $200. The state seems on a good pace to maintain a balanced supply relative to demand. As 2011 comes to an end, a shortage of SRECs in the state, if any, will be reflected by an increase in prices at the end of the trading period in the first quarter of 2012. Out-of-state SRECs continue to be a non-factor in Maryland.

Massachusetts (Supply: 27.1 MW | Demand: 55.7 MW): Mass SREC values rose to $535 in the Q2 2011 sale on October 18th. This trend should continue as the SREC shortage becomes more apparent. The next big quarterly MA SREC auction will close on Monday January 16th. In the meantime, solar owners can offer unsold SRECs in our regular monthly auctions.

New Jersey (Supply: 448 MW | Demand: 368 MW): The 2012 market continues to rebound up to $225 from $205 last month. As more buyers become active in the 2012 market, prices should continue to correct, though the oversupply continues to grow as 18 more megawatts were added in September.

Ohio (Supply: 82.0 MW | Demand: 37.7 MW) : In-State SRECs demand dropped slightly. Activity in the out-of-state SREC market increased this month.

Pennsylvania (Supply: 146.4 MW | Demand 40.4 MW): HB 1508 was recently introduced to address the state’s SREC market. This marks the beginning of a long process to rescue the PA SREC market. Until then, SRECs will continue to bottom out.

Washington, DC (Supply: 21.4 MW | Demand: 41.9 MW): Prices continue to increase as new legislation closing the DC market borders and increasing requirements take effect on the market.

For historical pricing please see this link. The order period for the December auction will close on Wednesday, November 30, 2011 at 5:00 p.m Eastern. For more information, please visit www.srectrade.com.

MA2011 SREC Auction Closes at $535/SREC

Posted October 18th, 2011 by SRECTrade.

The Q2 2011 (April – June 2011) MA SRECs were issued on October 15, 2011. Unlike other SREC markets, the MA Solar Carve-Out program mints SRECs quarterly, three and a half months after the close of the calendar quarter. In coordination with the Q2 2011 issuance, SRECTrade recently held a separate auction for MA2011 SRECs.

The auction closed on Monday, October 17th at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. SRECs transacted at a clearing price of $535.00 per SREC. The clearing price, more than 97% of the 2011 Solar Alternative Compliance Payment (SACP), represents a strong demand for MA2011 SRECs due to a shortfall of supply in the market.

Any SRECs that went unsold in the auction will be available for sale in the next SRECTrade auction closing on Monday, October 31, 2011. This auction will cover all of the SREC markets including DC, DE, MA, MD, NJ, OH, and PA. The order window is currently open. All buyers and self-serve sellers can login here to place an order. Sellers utilizing SRECTrade’s management service, EasyREC, will have orders automatically placed on their behalf. If these sellers need to make changes to their minimum offer prices, they must do so prior to the 5:00 p.m. close on October 31.

The next issuance of MA2011 SRECs will be on January 15, 2012, and will cover the Q3 2011 (July – September) generation period.

October 2011 SREC Auction Results

Posted October 3rd, 2011 by SRECTrade.

SRECTrade’s October 2011 SREC Auction has completed. Below are the clearing prices at which SRECs traded this month.

October SREC Prices Energy Year Ending
State 2010 2011 2012*
Delaware $90.00
Maryland In-State $200.00
Maryland Out-of-State
Massachusetts
New Jersey $670.00 $670.00 $205.00
Ohio In-State $395.00
Ohio Out-of-State
Pennsylvania $24.99
Washington, DC $61.00 $101.00

Notes:
*Delaware, New Jersey and Pennsylvania operate on a June-May energy year.
“-” reflects no sale, which would result if there were no matching bids and offers that cleared for a sale in the auction.

State Market Observations:

Delaware: Legislation increasing the SREC requirement went into effect this past June but the market has yet to pick up in response. Stakeholders in DE continue to work to wards a long-term SREC contract solicitation program for new facilities. Meanwhile, the SREC market will likely pick up at the end of the energy year when electricity suppliers are more active.

Maryland: SRECs continue to hover around $200, as the in-state supply of 28.3 MW grows near the ~29 MW of capacity that was required on average throughout 2011. The state seems on a good pace to maintain a balanced supply relative to demand. As 2011 comes to an end, a shortage of SRECs in the state, if any, will be reflected by an increase in prices at the end of the trading period in the first quarter of 2012. Out-of-state SRECs continue to be a non-factor in Maryland.

Massachusetts: The next batch of SRECs will be created on October 17th for Q2 2012 generation. SRECTrade holds special quarterly auctions for Massachusetts SRECs on the day they are created. The next quarterly MA SREC auction closes on Monday October 17th.

New Jersey: Last minute purchasing fueled by the predicted shortage of 2011 SRECs drove pricing up for the few remaining 2011 SRECs in the market. Meanwhile, the 2012 market rebounded to $205 after dropping to $165 last month. As more buyers become active in the 2012 market, prices should continue to correct, though, given the continued influx of supply (now at 430 MW), any price corrections will be limited unless the state takes some action.

Ohio: In-State SRECs continue to be in high demand as prices clear at or near the SACP again. Meanwhile, the demand for out-of-state SRECs has slowed down at this time, likely due to the effects of a significant oversupply in Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania: HB 1508 was recently introduced to address the state’s SREC market. This marks the beginning of a long process to rescue the PA SREC market. Until then, SRECs will continue to bottom out.

Washington, DC: New legislation closing the DC market borders and increasing requirements is having an impact as prices jumped back up over $100 for the first time this year.

For historical pricing please see this link. As mentioned the Massachusetts quarterly auction order period will close on Monday October 17th. For all other states, the order period for the November auction will close on Monday, October 31, 2011 at 5:00 p.m Eastern. For more information, please visit www.srectrade.com.

September 2011 SREC Auction Results

Posted September 1st, 2011 by SRECTrade.

SRECTrade’s September 2011 SREC Auction closed on August 31, 2011 at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. Below are the auction clearing prices.

State Year Price
Delaware 2011-2012 $85.00
Maryland 2011 $188.99
Massachusetts 2011 $525.00
New Jersey 2010 $606.56
New Jersey 2011 $606.56
New Jersey 2012 $166.79
Ohio In-State 2011 $401.00
Pennsylvania 2011 $10.01
Pennsylvania 2012 $20.00

For historical pricing please see this link. The next auction will close on Friday, September 30, 2011 at 5:00 p.m Eastern. The auction order period is currently open to buyers and sellers and will include SRECs eligible for the DC, DE, MD, MA, NJ, OH, and PA RPS Solar requirements. For more information, please visit www.srectrade.com.

First 2012 New Jersey Auction and Market Conditions

Posted August 10th, 2011 by SRECTrade.

Our August auction was the first auction of the NJ2012 reporting year (RY2012).  In New Jersey, the reporting year runs from June 1 to May 31, and dictates the vintage year of a given SREC.  June SRECs, the first generation month of RY2012, were first available for trading in the August auction and showed a significant price drop compared to RY2011 SRECs.  The price drop reflects the anticipated oversupply of SRECs for RY2012. Previously, in RY2011 and prior, buyers had faced an under-supplied market and were willing to pay high prices.  RY2012, however, will be the first year in the NJ market with an oversupply of SRECs.

RY2012 SRECs traded on July 29th at $276.16, approximately 50% less than the RY2011 prices.  Prices for RY2011 SRECs (June 2010 – May 2011) remained high at $564.99.  Given that compliance buyers have until the end of September to purchase their required RY2011 SRECs, RY2011 SRECs should remain in demand until that time.

For RY2011, SREC compliance buyers are required to purchase 306,000 SRECs, but SREC production fell short of this goal as the energy year came to a close. As of this posting, PJM-GATS reported that approximately 276,000 NJ2011 SRECs have been issued, representing a shortage of 30,000 SRECs. In RY2012, 442,000 SRECs will need to be procured, an increase of 136,000 SRECs, or approximately 113 MW.  Given this increase the market is intended to only average 10 MW of solar development each month, though as the graph below shows, growth has averaged 20.1 MW per month since the beginning of 2011.

NJ blog post 8_10_11

New Jersey started the 2012 reporting year in June at 339.6 MW of installed capacity, approximately 28.7 MW less than the targeted average of 368.3 MW. As of the end of July, the NJ Board of Public Utilities announced the state surpassed 380 MW of installed capacity, adding more than 40 MW in June. Considering recent capacity added and additional growth through RY2012, the market will have enough supply online to create 442,000 SRECs in the 2012 reporting year.

On the legislative front, the New Jersey State Senate recently passed S2371, a bill intended to help stabilize the NJ SREC market. The bill has yet to move to the State Assembly and the Governor’s desk, but if passed, it would move the SREC compliance requirements forward one year, with RY2014 SREC requirements replacing those in place for RY2013.

PA Market Update

Posted July 28th, 2011 by SRECTrade.

The Pennsylvania 2011 SREC compliance year has seen a substantial amount of solar development. Solar capacity registered within the state has lead to a significant oversupply resulting in an 85% decline in spot market trading throughout the course of the 2011 reporting year.

Since September of 2010, PA SRECs have dropped from $300/SREC to $50/SREC.  As of July 25, 2011, the 115.7 MW of registered generation has far outpaced the 2011 RPS requirements of 18 MW.  This has been the result of additional PA solar incentives, on top of the SREC program, and a large influx of out-of-state systems; of the 115.7 MW registered in PA, 24.7 MW are located out-of-state.

Fortunately, Representative Chris Ross has proposed an amendment to the PA Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard.  The amendment would modify the eligibility criteria so that only in-state systems could register in Pennsylvania after January 1, 2012.  Furthermore, the solar carve-out requirements for energy years 2013, 2014, and 2015 would increase from approximately 71 MW, 118 MW and 205 MW to 207 MW, 238 MW, and 290 MW, respectively.  These proposed changes should strengthen the market by increasing solar requirements and closing off out of state supply.  However, the oversupply of SRECs in 2011 and 2012 will carry over into the 2013 solar year and may keep prices low.  Given the legislature is out of session until October, further development will not occur until late 2011.

If new legislation does get passed, the market may shift from an oversupplied market to an undersupplied market.  This shift could result in an increase in future SREC pricing. One of the determining factors for price is the Alternative Compliance Payment (ACP).  In some states, NJ for example, the ACP is set by law and is known for future years.  Buyers know exactly what the alternative payment will be, and thus have a basis for the maximum value of an SREC.  In PA however, the future ACP is not known.  The ACP is calculated based on the average price paid for an SREC during the current year with weighting to include solar rebates.  For Chris Ross’s amendment to be truly successful, it will not only have to address the oversupply, but the ACP price as well.

To get involved with advocating for solar legislation, the Pennsylvania Division of the Mid-Atlantic Energy Industries Association (PASEIA) is a group of solar professionals who advocate for the interests of solar energy and a strong local PA industry.  Their blog has some good information on the status of the bill.

PA SREC Market – Proposed Legislation and Current Capacity

PA MW Forecast

Note: Capacity (MW) forecast based on PA RPS requirements and SRECTrade estimates.  Capacity (MW) figures presented for May 2010, May 2011, and July 2011 based on registered systems in GATS as of date listed. The current requirements (i.e. green line) as of July 2011 demonstrates the capacity (MW) required for the 2012 reporting year; approximately 44 MW. Figures for 2013-2015 represent the estimated amount of installed capacity (MW) needed on average throughout the compliance year.