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February 2013 SREC Auction Results

Posted February 21st, 2013 by SRECTrade.

SRECTrade’s February 2013 SREC Auction closed on 2/1/13. Below are the clearing prices by vintage across the markets covered in the auction.

February SREC Prices SREC Vintage Year
State 2011 2012 2013*
Delaware – – –
Maryland – $140.00 –
Massachusetts – $206.12 –
New Jersey – $95.00 $110.00
Ohio In-State – $40.00 –
Ohio Out-of-State – $9.00 –
Pennsylvania – – $10.00
Washington, DC $366.13 $370.00 –

Notes:
*Delaware, New Jersey and Pennsylvania operate on a June-May energy year. For example, current vintage SRECs are generated beginning in June of 2012.
Green text represents a price increase over the last auction clearing price for that vintage, red text represents a decrease.
“-” reflects no sale, which would result if there were no SRECs available for sale in that vintage or there were no matching bids and offers to determine a clearing price.

For detailed analysis of SREC market prices and trends please subscribe to the SREC Market Monitor, a joint publication of Greentech Media’s GTM Research and SRECTrade.

State Market Observations:

Delaware: No DE SRECs transacted in the February auction.  Most demand for DE SRECs will be through the DE SEU SREC Procurement Program solicitations. For the latest information on the upcoming 2013 solicitation click here: 2013 DE Program Announcement.

Maryland: MD2012 SRECs have consistently transacted at $140/SREC over the past 3 auction periods. As Q1 2013 comes to a close any compliance entities needing MD12 SRECs will be wrapping up their purchases. It is expected that the market will  experience a small amount of oversupply for the 2012 compliance period.

Massachusetts: MA2012 SRECs traded at $206.12/SREC. SREC issuance volumes in Q1-Q3 2012 and October – December 2012 MWhs reported to the MA CEC demonstrate that 2012’s requirements have been met. The next SREC issuance for Q4 2012 generation will fall on April 15, 2013. The 2012 market will be oversupplied by approximately 50% of this year’s compliance obligation.

New Jersey: NJ2012 and NJ2013 SRECs traded up to $95 and $110/SREC, respectively. The NJ Office of Clean Energy announced total installed capacity through January 2013 was estimated to be 973.4 MW, a monthly increase of approximately 17.4 MW. Monthly install rates continue to surpass RPS requirements.

Ohio: OH2012 Sited SRECs increased to $40/SREC and OH2012 Adjacent SRECs traded at $9/SREC. Both markets are oversupplied. Most demand for OH Sited SRECs has been fulfilled through long term agreements with large utility scale projects or through long term RFPs with the state’s regulated utilities. 2012 compliance obligations are currently being finalized.

Pennsylvania: PA2013 SRECs traded at $10/SREC, $2/SREC less than the January 2013 auction. SREC oversupply continues to impact PA’s market. 

Washington, DC: The 2010, 2011, and 2012 vintages increased to $330, $366.13, and $370/SREC, respectively. Increases in price may continue as the 2012 and 2013 markets are under supplied.

For historical auction pricing please see this link. The next SRECTrade auction closes on Thursday, February 28th at 5 p.m. ET and will cover PJM and MA Solar RECs. The next auction will be the first in which 2013 vintage SRECs will be available in Maryland, Ohio, and Washington, DC. Click here to sign in and place an order.

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New Jersey SREC Update May 2012

Posted May 7th, 2012 by SRECTrade.

New Jersey SRECs recently traded at $115.16 per SREC in SRECTrade’s May 2012 auction. This follows the dramatic decline in prices that the New Jersey SREC market has experienced since the beginning of the 2012 energy year. Click here for historic data on SRECTrade’s New Jersey SREC market auction pricing.

What’s going on?

The New Jersey SREC market is oversupplied. The state’s  Solar Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) targets a fixed number of megawatt hours (MW-hrs) needed to be purchased by electricity suppliers each compliance period. A MW-hr is the equivalent of one SREC, so in NJ we discuss the SREC market both in terms of total capacity installed in MW and total number of SRECs available each year. Under the current RPS, significantly more solar has been installed than is necessary to meet the state’s RPS goals for the next several years.

The 2012 reporting year (June 1, 2011 – May 31, 2012) requires 442,000 SRECs. Our March 2012 capacity analysis (scroll down to see the NJ numbers) shows that as of the beginning of April, total registered installed capacity was 670.9 MW with 386,500 SRECs issued. More recent data from the New Jersey Office of Clean Energy shows the installed capacity, as of March 31, 2012, at 730.3 MW. Additionally, approximately 455,000 SRECs have been issued in GATS from solar PV generation through March 2012. This figure, demonstrates that as of the last issuance period, there are more than enough SRECs available in the market to meet the 2012 reporting year requirement of 442,000 SRECs. The Generation Attribute Tracking System (GATS) is the organization that all New Jersey PV systems must register with in order to create and transact SRECs.

Another factor is that SREC issuance tends to follow a natural lag due to missing meter reading submissions and delays registering systems with GATS.  Given our experience with this data, it’s reasonable to expect a further bump in SREC numbers through March 2012. Also, April and May 2012 SRECs will be issued at the end of May and June, respectively, and will also add to this year’s total SREC issuance figures.

The additional volume to be issued allows us to project that the market is likely 40% to 50% oversupplied for the 2012 energy year. Lastly, when analyzing the 2013 through 2015 energy year current RPS requirements, the figures show that the market will be oversupplied when taking into consideration eligible excess SRECs rolled forward from prior years and the existing amount of installed capacity as of 3/31/12 currently eligible to produce SRECs. The table below demonstrates this in more detail:

Proposals to stabilize the SREC market

Industry stakeholders are working with the New Jersey legislature to come up with a way to stabilize the NJ SREC market. A NJBiz.com article dated May 3rd, mentions a possible bill proposal by Sen. Bob Smith (D-Piscataway), Chairman of the Senate Environment Committee, that would accelerate New Jersey’s solar goals while reducing how much buyers would need to pay for their SRECs if they don’t have enough SRECs in their portfolios at the end of each energy year.

To date, no bill has been made publicly available. Based on the information provided on the NJ State Legislature website, it appears the bill will be slated under the number S1925. The current description listed includes the following, “Revises certain solar renewable energy programs and requirements; provides for aggregating net metering of Class I renewable energy production on certain contiguous and non-contiguous properties owned by local government units and school districts.”

Until then, we must speculate on what the final contents of the bill will be.  An additional consideration is that even if a bill is passed by the NJ legislature, the bill will likely not go into effect until the 2014 energy year which starts in June 2013.

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April 2012 SREC Auction Results

Posted April 4th, 2012 by SRECTrade.

SRECTrade’s April 2012 SREC Auction closed this week. Below are the clearing prices by vintage across the markets SRECTrade is currently active in.

April SREC Prices Energy Year Ending
State 2010 2011 2012*
Delaware – – –
Maryland – – –
Massachusetts – –
New Jersey – – $135.00
Ohio In-State – $234.99 $185.00
Ohio Out-of-State – $17.50 $30.00
Pennsylvania – $20.00 $20.00
Washington, DC $250.00 $277.50 $290.00

Notes:
*Delaware, New Jersey and Pennsylvania operate on a June-May energy year.
Green text represents a price increase over the last auction clearing price for that vintage, red text represents a decrease.
“-” reflects no sale, which would result if there were no SRECs available for sale in that vintage or there were no matching bids and offers to determine a clearing price.

State Market Observations:

Please note, all capacity references are from the February capacity analysis and reference the amount of supply registered as of the end of February. The demand noted is the estimated capacity needed to be operational all year long for the current compliance period. Additional details regarding SREC issuance and older vintages impacting the RPS requirements are noted in the capacity analysis.

Delaware (Supply: 27.1 MW | Demand: 19.8 MW): No DE SRECs transacted in the April auction. The Delaware PSC approved the SREC Procurement Pilot Program for long term contract solicitations. The solicitation window opened this week.

Maryland (In-state Supply: 41.8 MW | Demand: 56.1 MW): No MD SRECs transacted in the April auction. Legislation to pull forward the Solar RPS requirements passed the Senate today in a vote of 37-9.

Massachusetts (Operational Supply: 52.6 MW | 2011 Demand: 55.7 MW, 2012 Demand: 65.0 MW): There was no sale of MA SRECs this period as they were sold in the Quarterly SREC Auction in mid-January. The next quarterly MA SREC auction will close on April 16, 2012. See the following link for an update on the MA SREC market: Massachusetts SREC Market Update – March 2012.

New Jersey (Supply: 689.1 MW | Demand: 368.3 MW): The 2012 market declined to $135. The continued decline in 2012 pricing reflects the substantial amount of supply currently installed relative to the 2012 and future compliance requirements.

Ohio (In-State Supply: 44.0 MW; Out-of-state Supply: 81.3 MW | Demand: 79.4 MW) : OH2011 sited SRECs increased to $234.99 as compliance obligations are being finalized for the year. 2012 pricing for in-state SRECs declined to $185. The out-of-state SREC market declined to $17.50 and $30 for the 2011 and 2012 vintages, respectively. This decline is driven by the oversupply from PA as well as the other adjacent states not having their own SREC programs.

Pennsylvania (Supply: 182.0 MW | Demand 41.2 MW): PA2011 SRECs traded up from $10 to $20, while we saw a slight decrease in the 2012 vintage to $20.

Washington, DC (Supply: 23.1 MW | Demand: 51.0 MW): The 2010 vintage saw a decline from $275 to $250/SREC, while the 2011 DC SRECs increased slightly to $277.50/SREC. Compliance year 2012 SRECs traded at $290/SREC.

For historical pricing please see this link. The next SRECTrade auction closes on Monday, April 16 at 5 p.m. ET and will cover MA2011 SRECs. The next PJM Solar REC auction will close on Tuesday, May 1 at 5 p.m. ET. Click here to sign in and place an order.

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February 2012 SREC Auction Results

Posted February 3rd, 2012 by SRECTrade.

SRECTrade’s February 2012 SREC Auction closed this week. Below are the clearing prices by vintage across the markets SRECTrade is currently active in.

February SREC Prices Energy Year Ending
State 2010 2011 2012*
Delaware – – $60.00
Maryland In-State $180.00 $205.00
Maryland Out-of-State – –
Massachusetts – –
New Jersey – – $205.00
Ohio In-State – $285.00
Ohio Out-of-State – $40.00
Pennsylvania $9.99 $30.00 $35.00
Washington, DC – $275.00

Notes:
*Delaware, New Jersey and Pennsylvania operate on a June-May energy year.
Green text represents a price increase over the last auction clearing price for that vintage, red text represents a decrease.
“-” reflects no sale, which would result if there were no matching bids and offers that cleared for a sale in the auction.

State Market Observations:

Please note, all capacity references are from the December capacity analysis and reference the amount of supply registered as of the end of December. Additional details regarding SREC issuance are provided in the capacity analysis.

Delaware (Supply: 25.5 MW | Demand: 19.8 MW): Pricing was down from $65.00/SREC to $60.00. The Delaware PSC approved the SREC Procurement Pilot Program for long term contract solicitations which should commence in Q2. As of January 3, 2012, PJM GATS reported the issuance of approximately 13,560 DE2011-12 vintage SRECs. Additional SRECs from prior eligible periods may also impact the market should there be a demand for these older vintage SRECs.

Maryland (In-state Supply: 37.8 MW | Demand: 27.6 MW): SRECs held at $205 this past auction period.  MD2011 Out-of-State did not trade. The state continues on pace to maintain a balanced supply relative to demand for the compliance year.

Massachusetts (Operational Supply: 32.5 MW | Demand: 55.7 MW): There was no sale of MA SRECs this period as they were sold in the Quarterly SREC Auction in mid-January. The next quarterly MA SREC auction will close in mid-April.

New Jersey (Supply: 483.2 MW* | Demand: 368 MW): The 2012 market dropped back down to $205 after the state legislature failed to pass a Bill to increase the solar requirements. Inaction will lead to continued declines in pricing.

Ohio (In-State Supply: 29.0 MW; Out-of-state Supply: 68.0 MW | Demand: 39.1 MW) : OH2011 sited SRECs dropped to $285 with growing SREC supply from large in-state systems. The out-of-state SREC market increased again to $40/SREC.

Pennsylvania (Supply: 159.4 MW | Demand 41.2 MW): PA2011 SRECs traded up again to $30/SREC and PA2012 increased to $35/SREC.

Washington, DC (Supply: 21.7 MW | Demand: 41.9 MW): The 2011 DC SRECs increased to $275/SREC.

For historical pricing please see this link. The next SRECTrade auction closes on Thursday, March 1 at 5 p.m. ET.

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January 2012 SREC Auction Results

Posted January 10th, 2012 by SRECTrade.

SRECTrade’s January 2012 SREC Auction closed last week. Below are the clearing prices by vintage across the markets SRECTrade is currently active in.

January SREC Prices Energy Year Ending
State 2010 2011 2012*
Delaware – – $65.00
Maryland In-State – $204.99
Maryland Out-of-State – $35.00
Massachusetts – –
New Jersey – $245.00 $245.00
Ohio In-State – –
Ohio Out-of-State $30.00 $35.00
Pennsylvania – $20.00 $29.99
Washington, DC $250.00 $270.00

Notes:
*Delaware, New Jersey and Pennsylvania operate on a June-May energy year.
Green text represents a price increase over the last auction clearing price for that vintage, red text represents a decrease.
“-” reflects no sale, which would result if there were no matching bids and offers that cleared for a sale in the auction.

State Market Observations:

Please note, all capacity references are from the latest SRECTrade capacity analysis and reference the amount of supply registered as of the end of December. Additional details regarding SREC issuance are provided in the capacity analysis.

Delaware (Supply: 25.5 MW | Demand: 19.8 MW): Pricing increased slightly this period, trading up to $65.00/SREC. The Delaware PSC approved the SREC Procurement Pilot Program for long term contract solicitations. As of January 3, 2012, PJM GATS reported the issuance of approximately 13,560 DE2011-12 vintage SRECs. Additional SRECs from prior eligible periods may also impact the market should there be a demand for these older vintage SRECs.

Maryland (In-state Supply: 37.8 MW | Demand: 27.6 MW): SRECs declined slightly to $204.99 this past auction period. While not seeing any demand all year long, MD2011 Out-of-State traded at $35/SREC. The state continues on pace to maintain a balanced supply relative to demand for the compliance year. As 2011 compliance obligations are finalized, a shortage of SRECs in the state, if any, will be reflected by an increase in prices at the end of the trading period.

Massachusetts (Operational Supply: 32.5 MW | Demand: 55.7 MW): There was no sale of MA2011 SRECs this period. The next quarterly MA SREC auction will close on Tuesday, January 17, 2012.

New Jersey (Supply: 483.2 MW* | Demand: 368 MW): The 2012 market increased to $245 this auction period. Approximately 15% of the available supply in the auction cleared, representing a gap between buyer and seller’s expectation of value. Oversupply continues to grow as the state has averaged 32.0 MW installed per month since the beginning of the compliance period. October 2011 saw an increase in 41.2 MW. *Note: This figure represents the capacity registered in PJM GATS as of December 2011. Please reference the capacity analysis link above for details on NJ Office of Clean Energy installed capacity figures.

Ohio (In-State Supply: 29.0 MW; Out-of-state Supply: 68.0 MW | Demand: 39.1 MW) : There was no sale of OH2011 sited SRECs. The out-of-state SREC market saw activity, increasing in value from $30/SREC to $35/SREC.

Pennsylvania (Supply: 159.4 MW | Demand 41.2 MW): PA2011 SRECs traded up to $20/SREC and PA2012 increased to $29.99/SREC. HB 1508 will go before the Pennsylvania Commerce Committee this Wednesday, 1/11/12.

Washington, DC (Supply: 21.7 MW | Demand: 41.9 MW): Prices continue to increase as legislation closing the DC market borders and increasing requirements take effect on the market. The 2010 vintage cleared at $255.16/SREC, while the 2011 vintage cleared at $270/SREC. Note, the SREC and capacity figures do not take into consideration the amount of electricity delivered into the district that may be exempt from complying with the Distributed Generation Amendment Act increases, considering some electricity contracts may have been signed prior to the amendment’s implementation

For historical pricing please see this link. The next SRECTrade auction covering Q3 MA2011 generation closes on Tuesday, January 17 at 5 p.m. ET. The following auction covering all markets closes on Tuesday, January 31 at 5 p.m. ET.

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December 2011 SREC Auction Results

Posted December 2nd, 2011 by SRECTrade.

SRECTrade’s December 2011 SREC Auction has closed. Below are the clearing prices at which SRECs traded this month.

December SREC Prices Energy Year Ending
State 2010 2011 2012*
Delaware – $60.00 $60.10
Maryland In-State – $210.00
Maryland Out-of-State – –
Massachusetts – $530.00
New Jersey – $225.00 $225.00
Ohio In-State – $370.00
Ohio Out-of-State $30.00 $30.00
Pennsylvania $20.00 $10.00 $18.00
Washington, DC $176.00 $201.00

Notes:
*Delaware, New Jersey and Pennsylvania operate on a June-May energy year.
Green text represents a price increase over the last auction clearing price for that vintage, red text represents a decrease.
“-” reflects no sale, which would result if there were no matching bids and offers that cleared for a sale in the auction.

State Market Observations:

Please note, all capacity references are from the latest SRECTrade capacity analysis and reference the amount of supply registered as of the end of November. Additional details regarding SREC issuance are provided in the capacity analysis.

Delaware (Supply: 22.8 MW | Demand: 19.5 MW): Legislation increasing the SREC requirement went into effect this past June but the market has yet to pick up in response. The Delaware PSC approved the SREC Procurement Pilot Program for long term contract solicitations. Meanwhile, the SREC market will likely pick up at the end of the energy year when electricity suppliers are more active.

Maryland (In-State Supply: 33.5 MW | Demand: 26.9 MW): SRECs increased 5.0% in value to $210 this past auction period. The state seems on pace to maintain a balanced supply relative to demand for the compliance year. As 2011 comes to an end, a shortage of SRECs in the state, if any, will be reflected by an increase in prices at the end of the trading period in the first quarter of 2012. Out-of-state SRECs continue to be a non-factor in Maryland.

Massachusetts (Operational Supply: 30.9 MW | Demand: 55.7 MW): Mass SREC values declined slightly to $530, from $535, in the December 2011 auction. Volume during this period was lower as most supply traded in the auction post the Q2 2011 issuance on October 17, 2011. The next big quarterly MA SREC auction will close on Monday, January 16, 2012.

New Jersey (Supply: 448 MW | Demand: 368 MW): The 2012 market stayed flat at $225 this trading period. Oversupply continues to grow as the state has averaged 27.1 MW installed per month since the beginning of the compliance period. Estimates for October 2011 are forecast at approximately 44 MW. For a more in depth look at New Jersey’s capacity and SREC issuance see this post.

Ohio (In-State Supply: 27.7 MW  Out-of-State Supply: 61.3 MW | Demand: 37.7 MW) : In-State SRECs dropped 2.5% to $370/SREC. The out-of-state SREC market saw activity, but declined in value from $55/SREC to $30/SREC.

Pennsylvania (Supply: 152.0 MW | Demand 40.4 MW): PA2011 SRECs stayed flat at $10/SREC and PA2012 declined from prior periods to $18/SREC. HB 1508 was recently introduced to address the state’s SREC market. This marks the beginning of a long process to rescue the PA SREC market. Until then, SRECs will continue to bottom out.

Washington, DC (Supply: 21.5 MW | Demand: 41.9 MW): Prices continue to increase as new legislation closing the DC market borders and increasing requirements take effect on the market.

For historical pricing please see this link. The order window for the January 2012 auction will close on Friday, January 6, 2012 at 5:00 p.m Eastern. For more information, please visit www.srectrade.com.

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